Gibraltar vs Wales Prediction: Dragons to go one better than Tartan Army

Fresh from a respectable 2-0 defeat to Scotland on Monday, Gibraltar face another home nation this week as they play Wales at the Estadio Algarve on Thursday (17:00, BBC iPlayer/Premier Sports 2).

Read below for my Gibraltar vs Wales prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds ahead of this international friendly in Faro/Loule.

Team News

Gibraltar don't appear to have any injury concerns after their loss to Scotland, with Ethan Britto, Louie Annesley and Jayce Olivero among those to have played the full 90 minutes.

Defenders Connor Roberts and Joe Rodon have both withdrawn from the original Wales squad named by Robert Page, with Stoke City's Matt Baker added to make up the numbers.

There are five uncapped players who could be given their debut on Thursday including Liverpool's Lewis Koumas and Coventry City's Jay Dasilva.

Gibraltar vs Wales Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Gibraltar vs Wales page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Unsurprisingly, Gibraltar are a massive 50/1 to triumph on Thursday, giving them an implied win probability of 2%, while Wales are the opposite at 1/50 (98%), and the draw at 16/1.

Over 4.5 total goals is available at 1/1 and Kieffer Moore is favourite to open the scoring at 11/4.

Wales to win & under 3.5 total goals @ 9/5

Gibraltar beat Liechtenstein (2-0) and Andorra (1-0) in the space of four days in November 2022 but have lost all 13 internationals since, suffering heavy defeats to the likes of France (0-14) and the Netherlands (0-6).

However, only five of those losses saw over 3.5 goals scored, and they arrived in five straight games between September 13 - November 21 last year.

They frustrated Scotland for a long time on Monday, with Steve Clarke's side only making the breakthrough in the 58th minute and adding just one more goal in the 85th minute.

Wales, meanwhile, have seen 14 of their last 17 matches finish with three or fewer goals, though one of the exceptions was against Gibraltar last October as they won 4-0.

Gibraltar are easily the worst team they have faced in that time but with Thursday being an end-of-season friendly, there may not be as much motivation or energy this time around.

Correct score - Gibraltar 0-3 Wales @ 5/1

There's little value to be had in the majority of markets for Thursday's match, such is the expectation on Wales to sweep Gibraltar aside at the Estadio Algarve.

Therefore, it's probably worth trying to nail down a correct scoreline.

One-half of the score should be straightforward - Gibraltar have played 13 games since the start of 2023 and failed to score in any of them.

So, onto Wales. I've already laid out my reasons why I think there will be fewer than four goals, but why 3-0 rather than 1-0 or 2-0? Gibraltar played Lithuania twice in March, losing 1-0 both times, and were only beaten 2-0 by Scotland at the same venue earlier in the week.

Clearly, Wales are a better team than Lithuania, so I would expect them to beat Gibraltar by more than one goal, but are they superior to the Tartan Army? Scotland would dispute such an assertion given they are heading to Germany this month to play in Euro 2024 while Wales sit at home.

If you're a fan of the FIFA rankings, though - I'm not, particularly - then Scotland are 10 places below Wales in 39th. Page's side could also point to a tougher qualifying group, with Turkey and Croatia finishing above the Dragons, while Norway - Scotland's closest challengers to second spot behind Spain - haven't qualified for a major international tournament since 2000.

That's just a little something to consider - the reality is that it was Scotland's first warm-up game and they were lacking any real fluency.

The same could be said for Wales as they convene for the first time since March, but the fact that Gibraltar played earlier in the week should be to their advantage, with Scotland dominating the ball and tiring out their opponents.

So, I'm backing Wales to go one further than Scotland, but whether they can match the 4-0 scoreline from October when they struck all four goals in the first half, remains to be seen. That game took place on home soil, at the Racecourse Ground in Wrexham, while Thursday's match is in unfamiliar territory.

Gibraltar also opened up 2023 with four consecutive 3-0 defeats, so they are familiar with this scoreline.

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