Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Prediction: The Draw is the value Bet

We have some live La Liga action on ITV4 this Friday evening as Real Madrid make the trip to the Basque Country to take on Real Sociedad.

Our La Liga Bettting Expert Mark Sochon got the assignment for this one and he picks out his two Best Bets to back in his full match preview for us at Betfred Insights as we delve into his Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid predictions...

Real Madrid head to the Reale Arena for a rare Friday night league game after a late change to the schedules. They take on a competitive Real Sociedad side and the game is free-to-air in the UK with live coverage on ITV4 and ITVX.

There are still six matchdays to go in La Liga 2023/24, but the title race is as good as over after Real Madrid clinched a dramatic late victory in El Clásico last weekend to move 11 points clear at the top.

Fitting in a season when he has so often felt like the main story, it was Jude Bellingham who sealed it with a 91st minute winner, to go with his 92nd minute goal which settled the first meeting of Barcelona and Real Madrid back in October.

Sunday’s Clásico could easily have fallen a bit flat after the considerable European exertions of both sides leading up to the game. However, it turned into one of the best meetings in recent years, with all the ingredients you’d expect from Spanish football’s flagship fixture.

We had five goals, some brilliant individual performances and a great deal of controversy with Barcelona convinced they scored a perfectly good goal that would have been given in most other major leagues and competitions where goal-line technology is used.

Real Madrid won’t be losing any sleep on whether that particular ball did or didn’t cross the line as they head north to the Basque Country. They do so for a game that falls four days before their Champions League Semi Final first leg against Bayern Munich in Germany.

Some rotation is inevitable as a result, but there is sufficient depth to this Madrid squad that Real Sociedad are far from guaranteed to take advantage. Brahim Díaz and Joselu are candidates to start and have 23 goals between them in all competitions this season, despite neither being anything like regulars. Meanwhile, it was Lucas Vázquez who was perhaps the best player on the pitch against Barça with a goal and an assist from right back.

That depth has helped Real Madrid preserve a record that has seen them lose only once inside 90 minutes this season. This could be one of their stiffest tests though against a Real Sociedad side that is pushing hard for European qualification.

Imanol Alguacil’s side appear to have turned a corner after a serious dip in form during the middle of the campaign. Since exiting the Champions League against PSG, they’ve gone five matches without losing in La Liga, winning three on the spin before back-to-back draws against Almería and Getafe.

Their trip to the Coliseum last weekend was a particularly drab affair though and there are still some doubts about them, particularly in the final third of the pitch.

Strikers Umar Sadiq and André Silva have failed to fire and appear to have lost the backing of their coach, who is invariably opting for Mikel Oyarzabal in the central role up top. Meanwhile, former Real Madrid youth prodigy Take Kubo has gone off the boil with no goals in his last seven games and no assists since December.

They are still well-placed to secure Europa League qualification, but at best are likely to finish two places lower than last season, when they achieved an excellent fourth place.

Team News:

Real Madrid are still missing long-term absentees David Alaba and Thibaut Courtois while Ferland Mendy has also been ruled out, meaning Fran García should start at left back.

The rest of the eleven should see a fair amount of rotation from El Clásico with Joselu, Brahim Díaz and Dani Carvajal among those expected to come in. Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo have been ill this week which is only likely to increase the chances of them being rested, while Éder Militão is pushing for his first start since returning from an ACL injury.

Real Sociedad have got issues of their own, particularly at full back with Kieran Tierney and

Hamari Traoré joining Aihen Muñoz on the sidelines due to injury.

Forward Carlos Fernández is also still out while the game is likely to come too soon for midfield regular Brais Méndez who is recovering from a fractured metatarsal. Take Kubo is pushing for a recall having been left on the bench in La Real’s last two matches.

Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Punters can take their pick here with very little to separate the sides in the Match Result market. Real Sociedad are slight favourites at 13/8 with Real Madrid on offer at 7/4.

Most things point towards a relatively tight game and that’s reflected in the Total Goals market with Under 2.5 Goals available at 8/11 while Under 1.5 Goals is priced at 9/4.

If you fancy a rotated visiting eleven to still be too strong, you can back Real Madrid Over 1.5 Goals at 13/8 while Real Madrid to Win to Nil is on offer at 7/2. You can also get odds of 15/8 for Real Madrid in the Second Half Result market, which may appeal if you see Carlo Ancelotti making use of a strong bench after the interval.

Real Sociedad’s Mikel Oyarzabal is one of the few attacking players on either side who looks certain to start this match and he’s the joint 11/2 favourite to score first while he’s available at 2/1 to score anytime.

From a Real Madrid perspective, the smart play may be to wait for the starting line-ups, but Brahim Díaz could be a good option at 9/1 to score first and 7/2 to score anytime.

Bet 1 - Draw @ 11/5

Punters will need to weigh up just how likely Real Madrid are to take their foot off the gas in this game with the title all but won and Bayern to come next week. Rotation is guaranteed but we’ve seen that on numerous occasions already this term from Carlo Ancelotti and his fringe players have very rarely let him down.

The Italian will want a solid display to ensure they head into the Champions League tie with a bit of momentum. It’s just one defeat inside 90 minutes in 46 matches this term for Los Blancos which is testament to how consistent they’ve been.

Real Sociedad are on a better run of form but they’re not playing well enough to suggest they will roll over Ancelotti’s men here. La Real have just a 40% home win ratio in La Liga this term and I think the Draw is the standout option in the Match Result market at 11/5.

Bet 2 - Double Chance - Real Madrid or Draw & Under 3.5 Goals @ 10/11

Games between these two teams at the Reale Arena don’t always ignite, with only four goals in the last three meetings in San Sebastián. With Real Madrid likely to rest some of their most dangerous players, I don’t see this turning into a goal fest.

Real Sociedad should have plenty of the play but they’ve been struggling to kill teams off all season. They’ve only won one match this term against teams currently in the top seven and they look a bit short in the creative department right now with no Brais Méndez and with Take Kubo having gone off the boil.

As a result, I’m using the #PickYourPunt builder to back Double Chance - Real Madrid or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals at 10/11.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...