Mallorca vs Real Madrid Prediction: Rotation could give home side a chance

Real Madrid are in the middle of a Champions League quarter-final affair with Manchester City and that could lead to a potential surprise on Saturday (17:30) for the La Liga match at Mallorca.

Our Spanish Football expert Mark Sochon weighs in with his thoughts as he previews the match and gives us his Real Mallorca vs Real Madrid predictions...

Real Madrid travel to the Balearic island of Mallorca on Saturday in La Liga, before they head off to Manchester for the crucial second leg of their Champions League quarter final next week.

It’s a league fixture they could probably do without and Carlo Ancelotti is widely expected to rest a host of key players in Palma. With an eight point advantage at the top of the table, that’s a luxury that he can afford, although it’s a margin that the Italian would love to hold onto in order to take some of the pressure off next weekend’s Clasico in Madrid when second placed Barcelona visit.

Real Madrid will still be reflecting on the events of Tuesday night, when they played out an entertaining 3-3 draw against Manchester City. It's a game that both teams may feel they could have won had they made more of their periods of dominance.

Los Blancos were looking good to make the most of home advantage under the Bernabeu roof when they scored two goals in three First Half minutes. However, it was ultimately a game they could easily have lost, with City on top and 3-2 up heading into the final 15 minutes before Fede Valverde’s late strike ensured Real Madrid’s unbeaten Champions League record this season remained intact.

They’ve only lost once in the league, but they have dropped points in two of their last three away games and this could prove to be one of their trickier domestic assignments this season against a Mallorca side that couldn’t be much more different in style from the challenge posed by City.

With Javier Aguirre at the helm, they are a physical, defensive side that will go long to six foot four inch Kosovo striker Vedat Muriqi. He is more than capable of taking advantage of any weakness in the heart of the Real Madrid defence, particularly if key man Antonio Rudiger is rested.

Real Madrid have lost on two of their last three league visits to Mallorca so this hasn’t always been a happy hunting ground for Los Blancos and the hosts won’t be lacking motivation this weekend with work still to do to secure survival.

They struggled to get going this season with summer signings failing to ignite, but have shown more than enough since the turn of the year to suggest they should be fine in terms of staying in the league.

Mallorca have beaten high-flying Girona twice on this ground this calendar year and they saw off Real Sociedad over two legs to make last weekend’s Copa del Rey final where they fought valiantly before succumbing on penalties to Athletic Club in Seville.

Excluding that shootout, they’ve only lost one of their last seven games in all competitions, conceding just four goals, which gives you a taste of just how difficult this game could be for what’s likely to be a much changed Real Madrid.

Team News:

Mallorca are expected to have a fully fit squad to choose from for this game. That could mean they go with virtually the same eleven that started the Copa del Rey Final last weekend, although Predrag Rajkovic is expected to return in goal in place of cup keeper Dominik Greif.

There are no injury problems in the Real Madrid squad, with the exception of long-term absentees Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba. However, Carlo Ancelotti is almost certain to ring the changes and rest players, with Manchester City and Barcelona to come over the next week.

The entire back four may change from midweek, with Eder Militao likely to make his first start since returning from an ACL injury. Luka Modric and Brahim Diaz also look certain to come into the side. Joselu is another option, although Ancelotti may consider still starting key men like Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham for an hour or so, with rotation likely around them.

Real Mallorca vs Real Madrid Odds:

Despite the expected changes, Real Madrid remain the 8/11 favourites to win the game with cup finalists Mallorca on offer at 4/1. The Draw is priced at 13/5. If you fancy an upset, you can also opt to take a punt on Mallorca Draw No Bet at 5/2.

This is highly unlikely to produce as many goals as Real Madrid’s midweek outing in the Champions League. Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 8/11 and that has been a winning bet in all of Mallorca’s last seven competitive matches, while Under 1.5 Goals is on offer at 2/1.

With doubts over who will start in attacking positions for the visitors, punters may want to consider more left field picks in the goalscorer markets. Brahim Diaz is one man who should feature prominently and he’s 7/1 score first and 13/5 to score anytime while Luka Modric is available at 6/1 to score anytime.

Vedat Muriqi is the main dangerman for the hosts. He’s 13/5 to score anytime while you can use the #PickYourPunt tool to back the big striker to score a header at 13/2.

Bet 1 - Double Chance - Mallorca or Draw @ 21/20

Mallorca look capable of being very competitive in this game and potentially even winning it. Excluding penalties, they’ve only lost two of their last 10 in all competitions and that has actually been a really tough run of fixtures that has seen them play against teams currently in the top six of La Liga on six occasions.

They can also take a bit of inspiration from 1-0 home wins over Real Madrid in 2019 and 2023 and this could be a really awkward afternoon for Los Blancos who will undoubtedly have half an eye on Wednesday’s trip to the Etihad. As a result, I’m backing Double Chance - Mallorca or Draw at 21/20.

Bet 2 - Vedat Muriqi 1+ shots on target @ 8/11

There are unlikely to be any surprises from Mallorca and Real Madrid will know exactly what to expect in that they’ll have to deal with lots of long balls and crosses into Vedat Muriqi.

That does present a selection dilemma for Ancelotti. Antonio Rüdiger, by far their most convincing defender this season, is best equipped to deal with that aerial threat. However, given how important he will be in Manchester on Wednesday, it’s likely he’ll be rested meaning an out of form Nacho should be the central defensive partner for Eder Militao who is badly short on match practice having missed virtually the whole season due to injury.

Muriqi will definitely fancy his chances if it is that pairing and while he hasn’t been a prolific scorer this term, he has still managed to have three or more attempts in each of his last three league games and I’m backing Muriqi to have 1+ shots on target at 8/11 here.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...