Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction: The Draw is a Value Bet

Two Italian sides have made it to the Europa League semi-finals and that has meant our Serie A expert is working some overtime and he provides the betting previews for both encounters for us at Betfred Insights.

First we have his Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen predictions, which come with his two Best Bets for the match, set for a 20:00 kick-off on Thursday evening, live on TNT Sports 2...

It’s a rematch of last season’s semi-final but the situation could not be more different, in both camps, than twelve months ago.

In May 2023 Roma ground out qualification to the final in Budapest thanks to two typical Josè Mourinho’s team performances.

Focused, competitive but, above all, risks adverse, especially in the return leg when Leverkusen had 23 shots to Roma’s one but couldn’t find a way to take the tie to extra-time.

Last season, Roma approached the first leg of the Europa League semi-final on the back of four winless games and having scored only 45 league goals (their worst ever tally since 1993/1994).

Since the arrival of Daniele De Rossi on the bench, they have looked galvanized and are on course to return to play Champions League’s football after five year’s absence.

Despite their recent tough run of fixtures, and the fact they had 24 hours less rest than the Germans, the Giallorossi could not arrive in a better state of mind to this match.

The same could be argued for the German champions, who before playing last season at the ‘Stadio Olimpico’ had already lost 16 times and were slowly piecing together a campaign that started with Gerardo Seoane’s sacking.

Fast-forward eleven months and Die Aspirin have conquered their first ever domestic title, are still unbeaten after 46 games and on course to achieve an historic treble.

The visitors carry an air of invincibility and their latests heroics against Borussia Dortmund and Stuttgart, coupled with their last gasp comeback to knockout Quarabag, might be further signs that, after years of sorrow, history is finally on Leverkusen’s side.

But this match will be Leverkusen's bigger test since mid-February, when they dispatched Bayern Munich in style.

Leverkusen are unbeaten but not unbeatable, has been De Rossi’s motto.

Roma hold an impressive record in Europe in front of their crowd and, also thanks to their recent history in the competition, approaches this tie with no inferiority complex.

Team News:

Daniele De Rossi is considering a tactical tweak to his formation, because of Karsdorp's not sharp physical condition and the absence of the other two right-backs (Celik is suspended and Kristensen is not eligible).

Roma might return to three-man defence, with Llorente deployed as right wing-back. Chris Smalling, more suited to play in a back-three, could replace N’Dicka. Paredes, who did not play at the weekend because of suspension, will return in the middle. Dybala and El Shaarawy will play up front behind Abraham or Azmoun. Lukaku is still a doubt.

Leverkusen will line up with the usual 3-4-3 formation. Kovar will be in goal, while the defensive trio will be made up of Stanisic, Tah and Tapsoba.

Frimpong and Grimaldo will act on the flanks, while Palacios and Xhaka will form the midfield pair. In attack, Adli and Wirtz will play alongside Boniface. Former Roma player Schick should start from the bench.

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen Odds

Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Despite Leverkusen’s brilliance this season, the feeling is that this match will be evenly balanced.

In fact, the visitors are favourite (21/20) to win the first leg of the semi-finals, but you’d struggled to find such a high price for them all season.

Only Liverpool (29) have scored more goals than Bayer Leverkusen (27) in the 2023/24 UEFA Europa League, but the Germans have only won two, both at home, of the last four knockout ties in the competition.

We’re offering the same, high, odds (5/2) for the draw and a win for the Giallorossi. The hosts have reached the semi-finals in each of the last four seasons in European competitions.

Among Italian teams, only Juventus has had more consecutive seasons ending with at least the semi-final reached in the major European competitions (five between 1994/95 and 1998/99).

Roma’s home record in the competition is impressive, in fact they’ve only lost one of the last 25 home matches.

Leverkusen average almost 2.5 goals scored per match in the Bundesliga, whereas Roma have Serie A’s second best home attack with 36 goals netted in 17 games (average 2.11).

Over 2.5 Goals (10/11) has been a winning bet in four out of six Roma’s domestic games in the Europa League this season.

Leverkusen have only kept four clean sheets in the competitions and Under 2.5 Goals pays 4/5.

Both Teams To Score – Yes @ 8/11

The visitors, still unbeaten after 46 games, have only failed to score only once this season, whereas Roma have netted in all their last 33 home encounters in all competitions.

Both sides have shown some defensive flaws lately (there have been no clean sheets in the last four for Roma, and none in the previous three games for Leverkusen), and everything points towards an open game.

Whatever the scoreline is both sides will keep attacking till the very end. The German champions scored 21 times after the 86th minute, whereas Roma have found the net 14 times in Serie A in the last 15 minutes of games.

Draw @ 5/2

Leverkusen have big strength in depth as players like Stanicis, Tella and Adli have produced many goals and assists so far. Something Roma need to be aware of as well as Florian Wirtz’s great form.

The 21-years-old has now 36 goal involvements (17 goals, 19 assists) with seven of them coming Europe. That’s 12 more than Roma’s best player Paulo Dybala

However, the Giallorossi can count on the home factor and on European nights the ‘Stadio Olimpico’ is second to none.

Here, Roma are unbeaten in a knockout game since 2017, having collected 16 wins and three draws.

You can check out all of Daniele's Football Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Football writers...