Bolton vs Barnsley Prediction: 9/2 for Collins to help Wanderers finish the job

After being seconds away from a penalty shoot-out in the League One play-off final 12 months ago, Barnsley have a mountain to climb on Tuesday when they go to Bolton Wanderers’ Toughsheet Stadium needing to overturn a 3-1 deficit in this year’s semi-final second leg (kick-off 20:00 BST).

Their defeat at Oakwell on Friday was somewhat emphatic despite the fact it took Randell Williams’ spectacular finish direct from a right-wing corner to give Wanderers a two-goal cushion. Here are my Bolton vs Barnsley predictions with the home side standing 90 minutes from Wembley.

Team news

Don’t expect many changes from Ian Evatt as Bolton look to keep the momentum from that wonderful first-leg performance.

While the likes of Cameron Jerome and Victor Adeboyejo will have hoped that they might get the nod for the first game at Oakwell, they will surely have now resigned themselves to making their impacts off the bench on Tuesday and potentially at Wembley on Saturday week.

There’s no George Johnston due to the knee surgery that has kept him out for some time, but the Whites appeared to come through the first meeting with no serious concerns so they are otherwise looking in great shape.

Barnsley’s interim boss Martin Devaney is more likely to shuffle his pack as he looks for a higher intensity of performance from his side. That could mean that one or both of Fabio Jalo and Sam Cosgrove could start after the pair came off the bench on Friday, with Cosgrove scoring the Reds’ goal.

The South Yorkshire side earned a second-leg win over Bolton this time last year to take them to Wembley, but that came at home after a 1-1 away draw. This task feels a far bigger hurdle for the managerless Tykes.

Match odds

Bolton are understandably big favourites at 7/10, with the visitors 16/5 to get a win of any description and 22/1 to record a 2-0 victory which would see them force penalties. A draw is priced at 100/30.

Over 1.5 first-half goals @ 11/8

Unlike the cagey affairs between the same two clubs last season when the two legs of their semi-final yielded just three goals in total, Friday’s contest showed that there’s a real adventure about the Wanderers and we could be in for another high-scoring affair at the Toughsheet.

Expect Barnsley to come out firing, what with them having nothing to lose and everything to gain, and that in itself could help Bolton to hit a more exposed visiting back-line in order to kill off the tie.

You can get 3/1 on both team to score in the first half, which is no bad shout, but to play it safe I reckon the over 1.5 first half bet at 11/8 (with an implied probability of 42.1%) could well come in even if it means Bolton putting the thing to bed nice and quickly.

Aaron Collins first goal @ 9/2

While the rest of the world might be lumping on Dion Charles after his two goals in the Oakwell opener, I think this could be the moment for Aaron Collins to stamp his mark on the semi-final.

The former Bristol Rovers man bagged eight goals in 19 regular-season appearance following his move from the south-west in January, with six of them coming in the last six games as Bolton earned third spot in the League One table.

He is a great shout for a goal at some point, and I’m backing him to get the party atmosphere really started with the opener.

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