Bologna vs Monza Prediction: Another step towards Champions League football?

It has been a wonderful season for Bologna and a potential Champions League berth is still in-play. A home match with Monza on Saturday (19:45) live on TNT Sports 1 could be another step along the path to this outcome.

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella believes that they can get the three points. Read why and all of his other Bologna vs Monza predictions in his full match preview here at Betfred Insights...

After an extraordinary season, Bologna need just one last push to achieve an historic qualification to Europe’s top competition.

Despite their 0-0 draw at Frosinone Thiago Motta’s men have maintained a good lead on Roma and are looking to make the most of home advantage in April (after Monza they’ll host Udinese) to secure a top-four finish.

Back-to-back defeats have all but ended the visitors’ hopes to play in the Conference League next season, but their second ever campaign in Italy’s top flight remains very positive.

Bologna and Monza are not too dissimilar in terms of style of play and attacking philosophy (the Felsinei are second for ball possession and the Brianzoli sixth), but the home side have improved much more, compared to last season, than Raffaele Palladino’s men.

In fact Bologna ended the 2022/2023 campaign in 10th position only two points above Monza but now, with seven games to go, they’ve already got four more points than what they achieved at end of last season.

Monza, on the other hand, have never been in danger of getting relegated but would need 10 more points (more than those they’ve averaged so far) to match last year’s record.

The visitors only need a win and two draws to achieve salvation, and since their debut season in Serie A last year, they’ve developed a habit of picking up results against top sides.

In fact Monza have beaten Juventus, Inter and Bologna all on the road as well as Fiorentina, Napoli and more recently AC Milan at the ‘Stadio Brianteo’.

But Bologna have, clearly, much more at stake in this match and their excellent home record this season can’t be overlooked.

However, considering these two sides are among the ones that like to play more on the front foot in Serie A this game could turn out to be open and entertaining.

Team News:

Saelemaekers (suspended) will be replaced by Urbanski with Orsolini and Ferguson confirmed behind Zirkzee. Ndoye, who hit the bar against Frosinone, will start from the bench.

Freuler will be the playmaker and Fabbian should replace Aebischer.

Thiago Motta will confirm the same back-four that played last weekend with Posch, Lucumì, Calafiori and Kristiansen protecting Skorupski’s goal. Odgaard and Soumaoro are injured, Beukema might be able to start on the bench.

In the visitors’ camp, Pessina returns from suspension; Bondo is in contention with Gagliardini to play in midfield.

It is unlikely Dany Mota will recover from his ankle injury. Djuric will play up front.

Center-back Caldirola is suspended, Pablo Marí and Izzo will lead the backline with Andrea Carboni slotting at left-back. D’Ambrosio, Vignato and Caprari are all sidelined.

Bologna vs Monza Odds

The hosts are overwhelmingly favourite (4/7) to win the match, despite Monza being unbeaten in the last two games against Bologna.

But Thiago Motta’s side record at the ‘Renato Dall’Ara’ has been excellent, they’ve only lost twice (against AC Milan and Inter) and failed to score only on three occasions (against the Milanese sides and Napoli).

Bologna have only drawn two Serie A games since January 2024 and odds for the points to be shared are high (3/1).

Monza have won five games on the road this season, but none against teams in the top-half of the Serie A table.

Actually the Brianzoli have lost to Inter, AC Milan, Atalanta, Roma and Torino withouth scoring. A success for the away side pays 5/1.

Bologna have kept 14 clean sheets this season, only in 1963/1964 (when they won the Scudetto) they had a better defensive record (16 clean sheets).

Only two of the last seven Monza’s away games have ended with both teams on the scoresheet. The Under 2.5 Goals pays 8/11, whereas Over 2.5 Goals is priced at Evens.

Match Result: Bologna and Over 1.5 Goals @ 19/20

At home Bologna have been excellent at controlling games and hold the record (with Torino and Inter) for most home clean sheets (10).

They also have the league’s fourth-best attack and have scored at least twice in 10 games, they only failed to score twice since the 0-0 in the reverse fixture back in September.

But being this a must win game for Bologna they’ll probably take a few more risks than usual and might concede against a side, Monza, that has only failed to score once (in the 1-0 defeat at Torino) in their last seven outings.

Both Teams To Score – Yes @ Evens

Bologna’s defensive numbers have been really good as they’ve got Italy’s third-best defence, but the underlying data suggest they might have slightly overachieved, especially at home.

In fact, in front of their crowd, Bologna have got the second-highest xGA (expected goals against) differential, +6.56 (AC Milan has +8.22), meaning their backline is often exposed.

On the road the Brianzoli have suffered three heavy defeats (3-0 against Atalanta, AC Milan and Empoli), but otherwise they hold a respectable record with only two losses in the last seven.

It is difficult to imagine that a defence that has kept only four away clean sheets and whose xGA (expected goals against) differential on the road is +4.73 (fourth-highest value in Serie A) can keep such a fine team like Bologna at bay.

After all, Monza’s goalkeepers have been the busiest this season, with 113 saves made. Only two players (Orsolini and Zirkzee, with 10 goals apiece) are in double figures for both sides, but Monza have scored with more men in Serie A (13 vs 12) than the hosts.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...