Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Prediction: Goalkeepers to be busy in Allianz Arena

The Champions League has reached the semi-final stage as two giants of European football meet at the Allianz Arena in Germany on Tuesday evening. TNT Sports 1 will have the live broadcast in the UK, with kick-off time set for 20:00.

It is our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon who got the assignment for this one, as Mark Sochon previews the match and gives his best Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid predictions to bet on...

The Champions League last four commences on Tuesday night with a clash between two of the four most successful clubs in the competition’s history.

Real Madrid and Bayern Munich have 20 titles between them and both have tasted recent success, with Los Blancos the Champions League winners in 2022 while the trophy last headed to Bavaria in 2020.

It’s the first meeting in six years, but recent history certainly favours the side from Spain. Real Madrid won Champions League knockout ties against Bayern in 2014, 2017 and 2018, winning the away leg at the Allianz Arena on each occasion. Excluding friendlies, Bayern’s last victory over Real Madrid was 12 years ago, when they won a tense Semi Final on penalties.

The 2024 edition promises to be a competitive affair with Bayern the slight 1st Leg favourites, but they are underdogs to progress from the tie overall against a Real Madrid side that are now the outright favourites to win the competition after their dramatic penalty shoot-out victory in Manchester a fortnight ago.

Los Blancos had to sustain long spells of heavy pressure at the Etihad. That game taken in isolation, you’d say they were incredibly fortunate to progress, but when it comes to Real Madrid and this competition, they are masters of the art of finding a way through.

Since seeing off City, Real Madrid have beaten Barcelona and Real Sociedad in La Liga to all but clinch the Spanish title. Carlo Ancelotti rested virtually all of his regular starters in the Basque Country on Friday night but a goal from 19-year-old Arda Güler sealed a 1-0 win to extend their record to just one defeat in 47 competitive matches this season inside 90 minutes.

Bayern Munich are also in a position to put all their eggs in this basket, but not for the reasons they’d have liked, with Bayer Leverkusen having already wrapped up the Bundesliga. Thomas Tuchel took a different stance to Ancelotti in the league at the weekend though, with a strong Bayern eleven seeing off Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 thanks to a brace from Harry Kane.

They also overcame English opposition in the last round of the Champions League, with Joshua Kimmich netting the only goal in the 2nd Leg as Bayern sealed a 3-2 aggregate win over Arsenal following an entertaining draw in North London.

Bayern have won all four of their matches since the 1st Leg against the Gunners. Despite the disappointment of missing out on the league, there is a sense that momentum is building nicely for Bayern heading into this tie, with many fans now eager for Tuchel to stay and see out his contract until next summer as was initially planned.

Like Ancelotti, Tuchel is a man that knows how to win this competition and he has the slight edge in the managerial head-to-head with four victories to the Italian’s three whenever their paths have crossed.

There’ll be plenty of intriguing battles on the pitch too and despite the absence of an English club in the Champions League last four this season, there should be three English starters in this game with Harry Kane and Eric Dier lining up for Bayern while Jude Bellingham should be back from a bout of gastroenteritis for Real Madrid.

Team News:

Both sides have been hampered by some serious injuries this season and Bayern Munich have been dealt some fresh blows on the eve of this tie. Matthijs de Ligt and Konrad Laimer were both forced off at the weekend and are rated doubtful, with Tuchel not giving much away in his pre-match press conference.

The Bayern boss suggested both players, along with Dayot Upamecano, Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sané, would undergo late checks before determining their involvement. Kingsley Coman is definitely out, but there’s better news on Serge Gnabry who looks set to play some part.

As for Real Madrid, they are missing right back Dani Carvajal to suspension, which is a significant blow, although Lucas Vázquez was outstanding when he filled in during El Clásico.

There has been a little bit of sickness in the Madrid camp over the past few days, although Jude Bellingham, Ferland Mendy and Rodrygo are all expected to be fine to start this game. The big decision for Carlo Ancelotti is whether to go with Nacho or Aurélien Tchouaméni in central defence alongside Antonio Rüdiger.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Odds

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Bayern Munich are the slight favourites at 6/4 to win the 1st Leg with Real Madrid available at 7/4 while the Draw is on offer at 5/2.

The expectation is that the goals should flow in this game. Both Teams to Score is priced at 8/15, a winning bet in seven of the eight matches across a dramatic fortnight of Champions League Quarter Final action. You can also back Over 2.5 Goals at 4/6 while Over 3.5 Goals is on offer at 13/8.

Both Teams to Score 2 or More Goals is available at 100/30, a bet which landed in the Quarter Final 1st Legs of both of these sides with Real Madrid drawing 3-3 against Manchester City while Bayern Munich drew 2-2 at Arsenal.

If you fancy two of England’s stars to rise to the big occasion, Harry Kane is available at 6/5 to score anytime while you can back Jude Bellingham to score anytime at 15/8. You can also use the #PickYourPunt tool to back both Kane and Bellingham to score at 4/1.

Alternatively, if you see this falling more into the category of a cagey 1st Leg with both sides feeling each other out, you might want to consider Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 while you can back Under 3.5 Goals and Real Madrid or Draw Double Chance at 5/4.

Bet 1 - Bayern Munich 16+ Shots @ Evens

Real Madrid have needed to dig really deep at times to make it this far in this season’s competition, even in their Last 16 tie against RB Leipzig who had 34 shots across the two legs. Manchester City meanwhile registered 45 attempts in total in their Quarter Final against Los

Blancos so there’s plenty of reason to think this could be another busy night for Andriy Lunin in the visiting goal.

It’s hard to see Thomas Tuchel not instructing his team to look to play on the front foot here and chase a lead to take back to the Santiago Bernabéu. The German side average exactly 16 shots per game during the Champions League knockout stage and with home advantage, I’m backing Bayern Munich to have 16+ Shots at Evens.

Bet 2 - Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score @ 4/5

Real Madrid were content to defend deep and look to play counter attacking football against Manchester City in the last round. We’re likely to see a bit of that here too, but Ancelotti is unlikely to show Tuchel’s side quite as much respect and he’ll sense weakness in a Bayern defence that has conceded 38 times this season in the Bundesliga.

Bayern have kept just five clean sheets in 20 competitive games this calendar year so there’s plenty to encourage the likes of Bellingham, Vinicius and Rodrygo in the visiting team and this has the makings of another cracking night of Champions League football.

I’m going with Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score at 4/5, a winning bet in each of the last four meetings between the clubs in the competition.

You can check out all of the Champions League Betting Tips from the Betfred Insights team on our Champions League hub page...