Bayer Leverkusen vs West Ham Prediction: Unbeaten hosts to hammer Hammers

This is arguably the tie of the round in the Europa League quarter-finals as Bundesliga champions-elect Bayer Leverkusen host Europa Conference League holders West Ham United at the BayArena on Thursday (20:00, TNT Sports). The Hammers have been sensational in Europe over the past two seasons, but they are coming up against one of the finest sides on the continent, managed by former Real Madrid and Liverpool midfielder Xabi Alonso. 

It promises to be an enthralling encounter, and so here is my Bayer Leverkusen vs West Ham prediction. 

Team News

Nathan Tella was withdrawn at the weekend with a hip issue, which will be of some concern to Alonso given his importance this season. Meanwhile, Adam Hlozek was also taken off with an ankle injury in the win over Union Berlin, and will certainly miss this game, and potentially the return leg too. Patrick Schick or Victor Boniface will start up front against the Hammers, while Jeremie Frimpong will play in Tella’s attacking position.

West Ham are likely to be without Jarrod Bowen after he suffered severe spinal bruising against Wolves. That is likely to keep him out of action for this one, while Edson Alvarez is suspended. They are two key players for the Hammers, and Alphonse Areola remains out with a groin issue. 

Match Odds

The home side are the favourites here, priced at 4/9 to win the first leg, giving them an implied win probability of 69%. West Ham are available at 6/1 to win, with a draw priced at 18/5. If you fancy some goals, BTTS is 4/5 and over 2.5 goals is 8/13. 

Bayer Leverkusen -2 handicap @ 3/1

Bayer Leverkusen are going to win this game, I’m pretty certain. It’s just a case of how many they win by, in my eyes. They haven’t lost a game in any competition all season, and are on track to complete an invincible Bundesliga season and win a trio of trophies before the season is out. They are utterly magnificent, and yet it still feels like they are slightly overpriced here, at 4/9 for the outright win. 

They should reach the final of this competition, and could well beat Liverpool in the process, but for now, Alonso’s side need to dismantle West Ham. They should win this game by a few clear goals, so I’m happy to back the -2 handicap at 3/1. That means Leverkusen will need to win by three goals or more for this bet to be a winner. But they’re so good, and West Ham are missing their two best players, so that shouldn’t be an issue. There will be no European glory for David Moyes this year. 

Bayer Leverkusen to win both halves @ 23/10

A shorter price, but another sensible angle to consider. The Germans only scraped past Qarabag in the last round, with two injury-time goals sending them into the last eight, but I believe things will be a lot simpler this time around. The league title is now pretty much wrapped up, as they hold a 16-point advantage over Bayern Munich and they are into the final of the DFB-Pokal. 

The Europa League therefore, is now their primary focus. I think they will be able to put on a dominant showing against a beleaguered West Ham side who are going to be in for a long evening. Without the pace of Bowen on the counter-attack, I can see them getting penned in for long periods. That dominance is likely to pay off, and Leverkusen can win both halves in this first leg, to put one foot in the semi-finals. 

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