Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction: Will Gunners slip up in title race?

Arsenal are spinning plates. Their dramatic 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich on Tuesday night was not the perfect result, but it gives them half a chance heading to Germany next week. That game feels absolutely massive for their season, but they must not lose focus of the Premier League title race - a race they currently lead. 

Aston Villa are the next visitors to the Emirates Stadium on Sunday (16:30, Sky Sports Main Event), after their own European victory against Lille on Thursday night. They are locked in a battle with Tottenham Hotspur for that fourth spot, and after a disappointing set of results for English clubs in Europe this week, currently the extra Champions League place will not be awarded to the Premier League. 

It means this game is massive for both clubs, and below you can find my Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction.

Team News

Jurrien Timber is Arsenal’s only current absentee, and even he is close to a return to training. Gabriel Martinelli started against Bayern Munich but could lose his place to Leandro Trossard, while I’m also expecting Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko to come in for Arsenal. Mikel Arteta will want to keep his squad fresh ahead of a massive week. 

Villa have a few long-term absentees, including Emi Buendia, Tyrone Mings and Boubacar Kamara who are out for the rest of the season. Douglas Luiz is suspended for this one and Clement Lenglet is likely to miss out, while Matty Cash is edging closer to a return, but it is thought this game will come too soon. 

Match Odds

Arsenal are the massive favourites for this game, priced at 1/4 to take maximum points. That gives them an implied win percentage of 80%, while Aston Villa are priced at 10/1 for this win. That feels massive for a side in fifth, with a draw available at 5/1. BTTS is 5/6 and over 2.5 goals is 4/9. 

Double chance: Aston Villa or draw @ 13/5

Obviously an Arsenal win is the most likely outcome here, but in terms of value I feel Aston Villa have been massively underrated, almost to the point of disrespect. 10/1 for this Villa side to win, and Unai Emery to return to the Emirates and do a number on his former side, feels absolutely huge. 

Arsenal haven’t lost a league match in 2024, and they’ve only dropped points against Manchester City. They are the table-toppers and clearly an incredible outfit this season. But, and it’s a big but… the looming Bayern Munich game feels too gargantuan to ignore. Just like Sir Mix-A-Lot, I like big buts and I cannot lie when it comes to picking out my tips for the game. I don’t think Villa will go there and win, but in the words of the great man I think we can “Double up, uh, uh”.  

We saw last season how emotional Arsenal were during the Premier League title run-in and I think the Emirates might be slightly drained after the midweek efforts. I think this is a banana skin for Arsenal, and up against a fantastic Villa outfit, they could slip up. 

Ollie Watkins to score first @ 8/1

A price of 8/1 for the Premier League’s second-highest goalscorer to find the net first? Again, I think Watkins has been massively overpriced here. I understand that Arsenal have one of the best centre-back pairings in the league, but with 18 goals to his name already, not many sides have been able to stop Watkins. 

He scored the opening goal against Lille on Thursday and he also scored the opening goal in the 3-3 draw with Brentford last weekend. Clearly a fast starter, he is by far the most likely Villa player to find the net, and given Arsenal have so many attacking options, I don’t fancy selecting a goalscorer from the home side. I’m genuinely staggered by this value, and the 3/1 on him to score anytime is also worth considering. 

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