AC Milan vs Roma Prediction: All-Italian ties in Europe often mean Under 2.5

An all Serie A Quarter-Final in the Europa League is in store for us on Thursday evening, in a game set to be broadcast live in the UK on TNT Sports 4 with a kick-off time set for 20:00.

With both sides being Italian, it made sense to get our Serie A betting expert to preview this encounter and Daniele Fisichella is not expecting plenty of goals flying in, left, right and centre. You can check out his AC Milan vs Roma Predictions below...

Two of Italy’s most in-form sides face each other, for the first time ever, in Europe. If the Giallorossi under José Mourinho have got used to play continental finals, seven-times European champions AC Milan have never won this competition.

With the runners-up place in Serie A now virtually assured, the Rossoneri can seriously target Europa League to finish in the best possible way, a season that started with a few wobbles.

But currently AC Milan could not be in a better physical and mental condition, the hosts have won seven games in a row, for the first time since 2006, and have, lately, kept peace with leaders Inter in the league.

After 31 match days Stefano Pioli has got one more point in Serie A compared to two seasons ago, when AC Milan won the Scudetto, and the team has also scored four more goals than in 2021/2022.

Yet the 58-years-old manager is too often under pressure and criticised. Perhaps his good record is been overshadowed by Inter’s excellent campaign, and it looks like only European silverware can save Pioli’s job.

Two months and a half have been enough for Daniele De Rossi, at his first ever managerial experience in Serie A, to transform Roma. From a nervous, cagey and often passive side to a team that shows great intensity and always looks to impose its style of play.

The former club’s captain has not only tramsitted his passion to the team but has also brought a significant tactical adaptation, firstly the back-four, and a change in attitude.

The Giallorossi are galvanized after the success in the derby last Saturday that saw them beating Lazio for the first time since 2022 and close the gap on the fourth place, currently occupied by Bologna.

Back in January, Josè Mourinho was sacked after the visitors were defeated 3-1 at San Siro by AC Milan and were ninth in the table. Now, last year’s Europa League finalists, are fifth and have only lost two (against Inter and Brighton) of the last 15 in all competitions.

Team News:

AC Milan have a couple of injuries to deal with, especially in the centre of their defence. In fact Fikayo Tomori is suspended, Malick Thiaw might not be available due to a foot injury and Kalulu is not available either.

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (who missed Saturday’s 3-0 win against Lecce due to suspension) will play right behind Giroud, with Leao and Pulisic either side of him. In midfield Tommaso Pobega is not available, the only doubt for Pioli is between former Roma player Alessandro Florenzi and David Calabria at right back.

The visitors are also missing a centre-back, Evan Ndcika who’s suspended just like in the derby against Lazio. Huijsen and Kristensen are not on the UEFA list, so Llorente or Smalling should play next to derby’s match winner Gianluca Mancini.

Celik will continue to play as right-back, whereas Leonardo Spinazzola is set to replace Angeliño on the opposite flank. Dybala, Lukaku and El Shaarawy will form the attack; Tammy Abraham, who returned to action in the derby after 11 months’ absence, will start from the bench. Azmoun is injured.

AC Milan vs Roma Odds:

We start with what I think are good odds to back the hosts who are favourite (5/6) to win the first leg of these quarter-finals.

AC Milan are unbeaten in the last nine games against Roma (six wins, three draws) and have only lost one (3-1 vs Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League) of their five European home matches this season.

The last time the visitors won at San Siro against the Rossoneri (2-0 in October 2017) Daniele De Rossi was wearing the captain armband.

The odds for an away success (100/30) are very high, as Roma have only won two of their previous 14 away matches in Europe.

In Serie A this season AC Milan have got the best home defence (eight goals conceded, like Inter, Torino and Bologna) and have only dropped points in four occasions (two draws and two defeats).

Roma are winless in their last three games on the road in all competitions and have only kept three away clean sheets in 2023/2024. The draw pays 5/2.

In the last 11 games Serie A games, AC Milan and Roma have collected 26 points apiece, having lost just once, and averaged just above two goals per match (Roma 24 in total, AC Milan 22).

In fact, both sides are respectively Italy’s second and third-best attack, that’s why the Over 2.5 Goals is priced at Evens odds. However, 16 out of the last 20 Roma away games in Europe have produced only two goals or fewer. Under 2.5 Goals pays 8/11.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/11

Although seven of the last eight games between these two sides have produced more than three goals, every time we see an all Serie A match in Europe, we normally tend to be see a cagey match-up.

In fact, Italian teams have played each other 36 times in Europe: Under 2.5 Goals would have been a winning bet in 29 of these matches.

The vast majority of these ties were played when the away goals rule was still in place, however all last season’s four Champions League matches, when AC Milan first knocked out Napoli and then were defeated by Inter Milan, ended with less than three goals scored.

Milan win and Under 3.5 Goals 11/8

The Rossoneri’s performances, especially up front, have improved dramatically in the new year.

Since they took part in the Europa League, Milan is the team that has attempted more shots on target (28) and scored more goals. Only Benfica (9) has a higher xG value (expected goals) than AC Milan (8.7) in the competitions’ knockout rounds.

Rafael Leao has scored eight goals and provided six assists since January, Olivier Giroud is only three goals short off his record with the club (18 goals in 2021/2022) and Christian Pulisic has overcome his personal tally (10 league goals) in Europe.

The feeling is that the Milanese side have more ammunition than the visitors, whose only two players in double figures are Romelu Lukaku (who has not scored in the past five games) and Paulo Dybala.

Moreover, the Giallorossi were involved in a much tougher game at the weekend compared to their Thursday’s rivals.

The Rome derby was marked by frequent interruptions that produced 29 fouls and eight cards, whereas in AC Milan comfortable win against Lecce there have been only 16 infringements and two bookings.

Daniele Fisichella primarily covers Serie A for us here at Betfred Insights, you can check out his and the Football Betting Tips from the whole team here each week...