Tour de France Stage 7 Predictions: Evenepoel and Van Aert in the TT reckoning
Friday’s 25.3km individual time trial between Nuits-Saint-Georges and Gevrey-Chambertin sees the Tour de France switch gears as the leading GC contenders go head-to-head with the TT specialists for Stage 7 glory (live from 11:30 BST on Eurosport 1, 14:30 BST on ITV4).
The conversation has been dominated by Mark Cavendish over the last couple of days since he broke Eddy Merckx’s record for stage wins, but the race for yellow could be altered dramatically. Here are my Tour de France Stage 7 predictions on the back of winning 12/1 and 9/1 each-way tips over the past 48 hours.
World TT champion Remco Evenepoel is a massive favourite to win this stage at 4/9, but that helps to offer value on some of the other contenders. Yellow jersey wearer Tadej Pogacar is 11/4, with UAE Team Emirates team mate 14/1. Visma-Lease a Bike's Wout van Aert is 20/1, and you can get 22/1 on Jonas Vingegaard while both Stefan Kung and Primoz Roglic are 25/1.
It was in the individual TT over 22.4km to Combloux last year that Jonas Vingegaard made his biggest statement on the way to a second title in succession. He put 98 seconds on Tadej Pogacar and effectively broke the Slovenian in the yellow jersey race with a devastating display of speed and power.
Pogacar was questioned for his decision to swap bikes in the final 6km, but the game was already up by then, with Vingegaard’s max-effort performance leaving him physically shredded at the finish line.
This time around, though, the Dane has struggled to reach race pace as he continues his recovery from serious injuries including a punctured lung at the Itzulia Basque Country in April. And with Pogacar leading him by 50 seconds, Vingegaard’s main aim on Friday might be damage control.
But with the Slovenian two-time champion coming off a short turnaround after winning the Giro d’Italia, I’m not expecting him to go full-throttle this early in Le Tour. So long as he makes a little time on Vingegaard ahead of a flat stage eight and unthreatening stage nine before the first rest day, he’ll be happy enough.
One GC contender who could really challenge Pogacar, though, is Soudal Quick-Step’s Remco Evenepoel. Remco was also injured in that Basque Country crash, but appears to be far closer 100 per cent than Jonas.
Evenepoel has already won two of the four ITT he has raced this year, including most recently at the Criterium du Dauphine in June, and is the reigning TT world champion after beating Filippo Ganna by 12 seconds in Stirling last August.
Stefan Kung and Stefan Bissegger are among the regular contenders for top-10 positions in individual time trials, while Wout van Aert is one of the big names who could throw his hat in the ring after an underwhelming first six days.
Three of the Belgian’s nine career stage wins in the Tour de France have been in individual TTs. He’s due to compete in the 32.4km TT at the Olympics as well as the road race, so this could either be a great tune-up or a distraction to a greater goal in Paris in a month’s time.
Remco Evenepoel @ 4/9
There was a lot of talk during last year’s rollercoaster Vuelta a Espana that Evenepoel should reset himself as a stage winner first, GC contender last. That was easy to say after his blowout on stage six heading up to the Observatorio Astrofisico de Javalambre which left him with no chance of taking red.
A stage like Friday’s could be a pivotal one in Remco’s future direction, with his brilliance in time trials potentially setting him up to push Pogacar in the race for yellow. He already proved up the Col du Galibier in stage four that he can’t keep with the superb Slovenian on the mountains, so it will be on days like these that he gets to show his own superpowers.
A top-three finish in GC would be a great result for Remco on his Le Tour debut, and a statement performance in this stage would set him up perfectly for just such a campaign. The 4/9 odds offer little value, suggesting a 69.2% probability, but this really should be Evenepoel's time.
Wout van Aert @ 20/1
This one is for anyone who can't bring themselves to back a 4/9 favourite...
I’d normally be talking up Primoz Roglic a lot in a situation like this one but the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider has simply not got going so far in this year’s Tour.
And while Van Aert has also been short of his best, I can’t see him not leaving some sort of mark sooner or later on the streets of l’Hexagone. This is one day on which the needs of Vingegaard are not at the forefront of the minds of the rest of the Visma-Lease a Bike team, and that frees up Van Aert to have a real dig if he so desires.
If he’s a contender for an early withdrawal ahead of the Olympics, now might be the time to let loose and really dig in for a big TT stage win.
You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.
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