Tour de France Stage 9 Predictions: World champ the man to beat on gravel

 | Saturday 6th July 2024, 20:25pm

Saturday 6th July 2024, 20:25pm

vuelta a espana cycling scaled

Sunday’s Stage 9 of the 2024 Tour de France is a day like no other, taking in 14 separate stints of gravel track on a 199km loop starting and ending in Troyes which could throw up all sorts of issues for the world’s greatest cyclists (live from 12:00 BST on Eurosport 1, 12:15 BST on ITV4).

The gravel sectors account for 32km of the route in total and only end 9km from the finish line, meaning there could be any number of punctures, falls and other roadblocks down to the latter stages. That makes Tour de France Stage 9 predictions difficult to say the least.

Tour de France Stage 9 Betting Tips

  • Mathieu van der Poel @ 8/1
  • Tadej Pogacar E/W @ 22/1

Tour de France Betting Odds

World road race champion Mathieu van der Poel leads the market for stage nine at 4/1, with his Alpecin-Deceuninck teammate Jasper Philipsen next at 15/2. Two-time winner on the Tour so far Biniam Girmay is 12/1 to go back-to-back after Saturday’s success, with Wout van Aert 16/1 to have his first really good day of the event. Race leader Tadej Pogacar is 22/1.

Cycling Odds

We went oh so close to four straight days of picking the winner on Saturday but Philipsen was pipped in the sprint finish by Girmay, denying us an 8/1 win following 12/1, 9/1 and 4/9 selections taking the stages on the three previous days.

And I think this will be another day in which Philipsen will miss out after three second-place finishes (one later retracted), with the rapidly-altering surfaces not being ideal for those hoping that the pack will stay together for a sprint back in Troyes.

Van der Poel has proved in the past what he can do in stages like this, while Pogacar has to be a consideration given his excellent record at the Strade Bianche in Italy.

The Slovenian came into the Piazza del Campo in Siena with a massive 2:44 lead after a solo break 81.1km from home back in March to record his second win at the event. The difference here is that the gravel surface are said to be even more unpredictable than those around the Tuscan course, with bigger rocks among the obstacles.

The Tour de France Femmes of 2023 saw the riders take on a couple of these sections on stage four, but 14 of them makes Sunday so tough to call.

Mathieu van der Poel @ 4/1

At his best, Van der Poel is poetry in motion, with his performance in the World Championships in Glasgow summing up exactly what he can do.

There, he defied the undulating laps of the city centre to launch a solo 22.3km out and cruise to a 1:37 victory over Van Aert and Pogacar.

I also expect him to be leading the fight here, with the only thing likely to compromise his hopes being a big bunch staying with him. That would potentially relegate him to lead-out man for Philipsen once more, with his Belgian teammate hunting that first win of this year’s Tour.

But I think that too much can go wrong on the various gravel sections for this to be a formulaic sprint finish, and that suggests to me that Van der Poel could be in the running for his team’s maiden victory of Le Tour 2024.

Mathieu van der Poel @ 4/1

Tadej Pogacar E/W @ 22/1

Pogacar ought to be up there, but if he has mechanical trouble he might not have the team support he will need to make do and mend quickly in the way that I’m expecting Alpecin-Deceuninck to come together as one.

We’ve already seen in this year’s race some miscommunication within UAE Team Emirates, and this would be a very good time to fix that up for their man in yellow.

The thing is, if Pogacar gets away as he did in the Strade Bianche and manages to avoid unexpected setbacks, he could absolutely boss the stage. With a rest day ahead on Monday, he might well think the risk is worth it.

But I’m going with an each-way bet on him to be on the safe side, as I do have that nagging doubt about him getting the back-up he needs. The 22/1 odds give him a 4.3% implied chance, which seems light for a man who has done so much good on the rocky roads before.

Tadej Pogacar E/W @ 22/1

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.

Share Article

(Visited 1,475 times, 3 visits today)