England v USA Prediction: 5/1 Brook to pick up where he left off

It’s England v USA on Sunday, June 23 (15:30, Sky Sports Cricket) at Bridgetown as England look to win big and the USA look to end their tournament on a high.

James Pacheco argues the case for 5/1 chance Harry Brook top scoring again and an early wicket for the USA as he takes us through his USA vs England Predictions...

England

Defeat to South Africa has put them in a precarious position. A loss here and they’ll be out, a rained off game and they’ll almost certainly be out but even a win here with results not going their way in the South Africa v West Indies match could still spell the end of the road for them.

They’ll be left to rue a costly Powerplay against the Proteas where they let Quinton de Kock get away. They bowled extremely well after that to restrict South Africa to a score of 163 that at one stage looked like it could be 180+ and in the chase with Harry Brook in scintillating form and well-supported by Liam Livingstone, they traded as very short favourites.

But Brook got out to a fine catch and Sam Curran couldn’t finish off the job in light of some good death-bowling. For years they batted down to 10 but it exposed the fact this current batting line-up doesn’t bat so deep with little to come after Curran at seven.

Mark Wood was expensive and may miss out with Chris Jordan adding some more batting. Alternatively, Wil Jacks may be recalled if they feel strengthening their batting is the priority.

Possible XI: Buttler, Salt, Bairstow, Brook, Ali, Livingstone, Curran, Jordan, Archer, Rashid, Wood/Jacks.

USA

Their defeat to the West Indies was perhaps the match we realised there’s still plenty of work to be done for the USA to be consistent at this level. Having started well with the bat, they got out to rash, misjudged shots, not knowing whether to stick or twist and in the end doing neither.

Aaron Jones trying so smash the wily Roston Chase out of the park off Chase’s first delivery and getting clean bowled was a good example of that; why not take a couple of sighters against a player you’ve probably never faced before?

Once they failed to post 155 or so, the game was up. But they shouldn't be too disheartened with their efforts at this World Cup, far from it.

Corey Anderson was perhaps the biggest disappointment for them, not really contributing with either bat or ball. It may be the end of the road for him at international level.

Possible XI: Taylor, Gous, Kumar, Jones, Anderson, Kumar, Singh, Schalkwyk, Khan, Netravalkar.

Pitch and conditions

We’re at Bridgetown again, where USA lost that game to the Windies.

The 128 USA posted was down to poor batting and poor decision-making to go with some decent Windies bowling, meaning it’s a better track than what they scored.

England will be looking to get at least 180 batting first, even though there may be some wear in the pitch. The USA would probably be happy with 150 if they get first digs.

USA vs England Odds

The 7/1 on the USA isn’t the worst price you’ll see this weekend.

Not just because they’d been good up to the last match but more because England may be too obsessed with net run rates rather than the job in hand of winning the match first.

If chasing 150 or so, they might look to get there in 12 or 13 overs, lose quick wickets and then find they’re behind the eight-ball in terms of just winning the game.

I’ll swerve it on this occasion because the USA look like they might be slightly running out of steam, but that doesn’t mean you have to.

England Top Runscorer

Harry Brook has won two of the last three top batsman betting heats for England; he didn’t get a bat in the one he didn’t win.

At 5/1 he’s the only price that catches the eye. This may sound like jumping on the bandwagon but there’s more to it than that. The likes of Salt and Buttler will need to be more aggressive than normal with that net run rate in mind. That could go one of two ways; one of them gets to 50 off about 25. Or one or both get out quite cheaply albeit after scoring quickly and open the door to the in-form Brook at number four, who was in excellent touch against South Africa.

At the price it’s worth thinking it might be the latter.

England Fall of First Wicket Dismissal

Following the narrative that England could be reckless from the off and it’s also worth going with them losing a wicket before getting 30 runs on the board, whether that leads to Brook coming good, or not.

Salt was out for 12, 11 and 11 in three of his last four knocks so is vulnerable to the early dismissal, while Buttler got out for 0, 25 and 17 in his last three; the lack of good starts has cost them.

The other reason for the bet is that their best bowler Saurabh Netravalkar bowls at the top, so that might be their best chance of a wicket.

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...