India v South Africa Prediction: Proteas to upset the odds and win their first-ever World Cup

 | Friday 28th June 2024, 13:20pm

Friday 28th June 2024, 13:20pm

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It’s the big India v South Africa World Cup final on Saturday, June 29 (15:30, Sky Sports Cricket) at Bridgetown with India looking for their second T20 World Cup win and South Africa their first.

James Pacheco is sitting on a good 9/2 bet going into the final that just requires a quiet day from Arshdeep Singh but in terms of bets for this match, he fancies a South Africa upset, a Sky special and two star bowlers to each take two wickets as he takes us through his South Africa vs India Predictions...

South Africa vs India T20 World Cup Final Betting Tips

  • South Africa to win @ 13/8
  • J Bumrah and K Rabada to take 2+ wickets each @ 4/1 (Boosted from 100/30)
  • Sky Yadav to be India Top Batsman @ 4/1

India

The 171 they posted against England was a much better score than it first looked. The key was that the likes of Rohit Sharma (57), Sky Yadav (47) and Hardik Pandya (23) all had high strike rates meaning that as a few others struggled - notably Virat Kohli once again - their quick runs made up for it.

When England hit a few early boundaries, there was no panic, just belief that their methods and the pitch would do the rest, just like it has all tournament.

All of Jasprit Bumrah, Kuldeep Yadav and Axar Patel were superb, with Axar being the pick for Player of the Match because his 3-23 involved dismissing three of England’s Top 4.

The form of Virat Kohli and Shivam Dube is a concern but it would be strange to make changes this late on in the day so we should see the same XI once again.

Let’s hope Arshdeep Singh doesn’t get more than one wicket.

Ahead of Afghanistan v South Africa we backed Fazalhaq Farooqi at 9/2 for tournament top wicket-taker and he took one more, meaning he’s now on 17. Arshdeep didn’t against England, so he’s now on 15. One won’t be enough, two for Arshdeep and he ties with our man and we’d dead heat, which would mean a payout at 7/4. Three and he overtakes Farooqi, sadly. If Bumrah were to take four, he’d also dead heat, but that’s quite unlikely.

Possible XI: Sharma, Kohli, Pant, Sky, Dube, Pandya, Jadeja, Axar, Kuldeep, Arshdeep, Bumrah.

South Africa

Half the job was done for them when Rashid Khan decided to bat first.

Bowling first on a lively wicket, they dismissed Afghanistan for just 56 and chased it for the loss of just one wicket. Yes, it was a poor wicket, yes, the opposition were jaded and also played some bad shots, but the Proteas bowlers deserve plenty of credit nonetheless. The likes of Kagiso Rabada,

Marco Jansen and Anrich Nortje just kept hitting that good length and causing them plenty of problems, while the spinners mopped up the tail.

It was as close as you could get to playing the perfect match and the belief just keeps on growing. That they’ve done it without the brilliant Heinrich Klassen contributing too much shows how good a side this is.

They may not have some of the star names of yesteryear, but this is probably the best South African side I’ve ever seen in this format in terms of balance and ticking all the boxes. They’ll never have a better chance.

Possible XI: de Kock, Hendricks, Markram, Stubbs, Klassen, Miller, Jansen, Maharaj, Rabada, Nortje, Shamsi.

Pitch and conditions

Bridgetown was where both the West Indies and England chased down the USA’s first innings totals with ease. But don’t be fooled into thinking this is a chasing ground.

Before the tournament 75% of matches here were won by the side batting first with suggestions the pitch may slow down in the second innings.

Both teams will probably be aware of that stat and both teams would probably have wanted to bat first anyway given a) they’ve both been excellent at defending totals this tournament and b) most sides prefer to bat first in a final.

South Africa vs India Odds

India are 4/9, South Africa 13/8. Does that come as any surprise? No.

India were the pre-tournament favourites, they’ve won every match and look the full package. Despite not topping the runs and wickets charts, Bumrah and Sky are probably the best bowler and batsman at the tournament so there’s that, too!

So, can we make a case for South Africa? We certainly can, at least at the odds. If this was evens the pair, I might go with India. But it’s not.

For starters, the Proteas are also unbeaten this tournament. I’d put them ahead when it comes to their fast bowlers, fielding and their opening batsmen, while Heinrich Klassen isn’t far behind Sky in terms of potential for middle-order destruction, though he has had limited opportunities of late.

SA may never have won this tournament or even made a final, but India have hardly covered themselves in glory either since that first success all those years ago. So, they’ll be as nervous as each other.

Of course, I’d rather SA batted first given that 75% win rate for teams defending and if you want to play it a bit safer, wait for the toss and only back SA if they do bat first.

But I’m happy with the pre-match price. If SA do bat first those odds will probably shrink a bit, whilst the Proteas are more than capable of winning in a chase anyway, as long as it’s not more than 175 they need. So that 13/8 will do me fine.

Price Boost: JJ Bumrah & K Rabada Both to Take 2+ Wickets Each- 100/30 boosted to 4/1

The Betfred marketing team have taken come up with some Price Boosts for the T20 World Cup, so we might as well take advantage of them!

The one I like is for Jasprit Bumrah and Kagiso Rabada to each take two or more wickets, boosted from 100/30 to 4/1.

In seven matches at this World Cup Bumrah has taken: 2, 3, 0, 3, 2, 1 and 2, so at least two in five of his seven matches so far.

It’s exactly the same rate as Rabada, who has gone: 2, 0, 2, 0, 3, 2, 1 and 2, also five out of seven.

It may not win but the odds are certainly in our favour and even better, those Boosted Odds ensure a bigger than usual payout if it does win.

India Top Batsman

Finally, one last visit to the well that is Sky Yadav.

A pick ahead of their match against England, he was going well on 47 with Rohit’s 57 (who was out by then) to beat and he had all the time to do so before he, well, ‘skied’ one into the big hands of Chris Jordan on the boundary.

He’s India’s best batsman, he’s won this market twice in seven attempts and in his last three knocks against SA he scored 100, 56 and 68 so likes playing this lot. That’s good enough as a 4/1 shot.

*You can check out all the latest Cricket Odds from all the matches Betfred cover over on betfred.com

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...

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