Lions vs Packers Predictions: Running Back duo to light it up for Detroit

It is Thanksgiving in the States and traditionally that means two things, Turkey and Football. As always we have the Lions along with the Cowboys playing and @NFLGirlUK has previewed both games.

First up is the game from Mo-Town where the Lions are heavily fancied to take down the Packers. Read her thoughts and picks ahead of the early game this Thursday...

Thanksgiving is going to be a day filled with division rivalries, as the Green Bay Packers will be taking on the Detroit Lions. This won’t be the only divisional game on throughout the day, though it will certainly keep your attention. The Packers just won a stressful game against the Los Angeles Chargers to keep their season alive while the Detroit Lions moved to 8-2 after a comeback win against the Chicago Bears.

Green Bay hasn’t been very consistent as a whole this season, and most people blame it on their quarterback Jordan Love. Granted, he’s not been the best, but most of their issues haven’t been on him. Their run game has been practically non-existent this entire season. The only time that it looked good was against the Las Vegas Raiders, when AJ Dillon ran for 76 yards. Outside of that, their leading rusher has never topped that mark.

Jordan Love himself has actually led the team in rushing twice in 10 games. This issue was also made ten times worse when they took on the Detroit Lions back in Week 4. Their leading rusher was Aaron Jones with just 18 yards in a 34-20 loss. Love is forced into constant passing situations due to their inability to alleviate some pressure with the ground game, and the Lions exploited that heavily in the previous matchup. If that happens again, look for this Packers team to lean on their defense once again. A defense that has given up 42 points in the last three games, averaging just 14 a week.

The Lions aren’t going to stand for that and will surely push that defense to its limits. Now, Detroit looked pretty bad last week against the Bears, with Jared Goff throwing three interceptions. However, he also led a double-digit comeback with three minutes remaining in the game to win and improve to 8-2.

Whether you are a fan of Goff or not, he got the job done when it mattered the most, and the Lions proved to the world again that their resiliency is different this time around. Unlike Green Bay, the Lions have two running backs and an offensive line that can power home this ground game. In four games this year, Detroit has had a rusher eclipse 100 rushing yards.

The combination of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is a beautiful thing to watch, and it gets the entire team fired up. They can control the clock significantly better, their passing lanes completely open up, and Goff can be relieved in the fact that he doesn’t have to do it all himself. Their defense is also vastly improved from previous years, even though there have been some hiccups along the way.

In their last matchup with Green Bay, they picked Love off twice, and held the team to 12 rushes for 27 yards. They also forced two fumbles and racked up two sacks.

If the last game and this season as a whole have been any indication, it’s that the Lions should win this game. The dominance on the ground should allow them to control the night and keep their defense rested and in control.

The lack of a ground game for the Packers will once again force them into passing situation that they don’t want to be in, especially without Aaron Jones available with his injury. AJ Dillon is a talented running back, but he’s not Aaron Jones in the backfield.

Match Odds:

Going into a Thanksgiving game as favourites is not exactly the norm for Detroit but things are certainly moving in the right direction up in northern Michigan. The Lions are 2/7 to come away with the W with the Packers a big price out at 14/5 to pull off the upset.

The spread has been set at Detroit-7.5, which feels about right. Plenty of points though are expected with the over/under line set at a surprisingly high 47.5.

Both Lions' Running Backs are odds-on to score anytime with Montgomery leading the way at 8/13 and Gibbs backing up him at 5/6.

Bet 1 - Green Bay Under 19 Points @ 21/20

We learn from history and the last time these two teams met, it wasn't pretty for the Packers' offense. Two inceptions thrown, two fumbles and a couple of sacks given up. With Aaron Jones still unavailable, it will cause Green Bay to be one-dimensional as AJ Dillon is not going to get things done. This bet is just a smidgen longer than Evens and that feels about right.

Bet 2 - Detroit Lions to score 2+ Rushing Touchdowns @ 6/4

Earlier in the piece, I wrote, 'The combination of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is a beautiful thing to watch' and this selection harps back to that.

Both players are extremely strong inside runners who can churn out the yards but give them a crease and they are explosive. They get the tough yards in the Red Zone but can also get in from 20 or 30 if given the slightest opportunity. At 6/4, the price indicates a 40% chance of this happening and I reckon it's better than 50:50.

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