UFC 329 Predictions: ‘Notorious’ Conor returns to the Octagon

Conor McGregor returns to the Octagon at UFC 329 after five years away. The ‘Notorious’ one takes on popular former UFC Featherweight kingpin Max Holloway in a welterweight five-round rematch. McGregor beat Holloway via decision in 2013, but 2026 finds both men in very different places.

The event takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with TNT Sports Box Office and HBO Max screening the card in the UK on pay-per-view. Read on for my UFC 329 predictions.

UFC 329 Odds

McGregor is marketed at 7/4 to pull off his first MMA win since 2020. Holloway is your 4/9 favourite.

Max by KO has been price-boosted from 4/5 to 10/11 while a Conor first-round knockout has been boosted from 5/1 to 11/2.

UFC 329 Main Event Preview

McGregor is such an ever-present part of the UFC news cycle that it is easy to forget just how long the Irish firebrand has been away. 

For context, the following things have happened since Conor’s injury withdrawal against Dustin Poirier five years and one day before this fight with Max Holloway; then-heavyweight kingpin Francis Ngannou has defended his UFC strap, vacated it to become a boxer, lost to Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua and won two MMA fights outside the Octagon. 

Jon Jones moved up to heavyweight, won the title, defended it once and then retired. Jake Paul, 3-0 at the time of McGregor’s last outing, has boxed 11 times, including pay-per-view bouts against Joshua and Mike Tyson. Yes, even ‘Iron’ Mike has fought more recently than McGregor. 

Holloway is a different man than he was when McGregor went away, too. ‘Blessed’ has fought eight times since his opponent last set foot in the Octagon. There have been highs, like winning the symbolic ‘BMF’ title by knocking out Justin Gaethje and clinching a second reign by outpointing McGregor’s conqueror Poirier. There have also been lows, like being outwrestled in his rematch with Charles Oliveira in March.

Ring rust will be the biggest question surrounding McGregor come fight night. The former double-champ is 37 years of age. Not a death sentence for a combat athlete these days, but the ones who excel during their late 30s are usually active and battle-hardened. McGregor has not competed in so much as an exhibition since the Poirier loss.

But the aforementioned Tyson bonanza showed that people don’t just buy pay-per-views to see quality. This show will shift by the shedload because Conor McGregor means something to everyone who has ever watched a UFC card. They might hate him for his legal issues outside of the Octagon. They might abhor his uncouth, cocky manner within it. They might love him for injecting the UFC with a shot of superstar personality. For knocking out the great Jose Aldo quicker than you can blink. For lifting UFC belts across two weights simultaneously. 

One thing that unifies the various tribes that will be tuning in is this. They will not be watching because McGregor is still 'Notorious' for his fighting skills. He has won one MMA fight since 2016. They will be watching because McGregor encompasses so much of what UFC and life is about. Some love it. Some hate it. Some are bewildered. Others are thrilled. Most people tuning in will not even be doing so to be entertained. They will be doing so to watch something happen. Because wherever Conor McGregor goes, something always happens.

UFC 329 Full Card

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway

Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett

Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista

Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh

King Green vs Terrance McKinney

Preliminary card

Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov

Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison

Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez

Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III 

Early preliminary card

Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong

Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida

Farid Basharat vs John Garza

Ryan Gandra vs Zachary Reese

Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden

UFC 329 Main Event Prediction

This is an interesting rematch as you could argue neither McGregor-Holloway meetings will have taken place in their primes. The 2013 bout which Conor won on points came in the Irish star's second-ever UFC outing, while Holloway was coming off a loss to Dennis Bermudez.

In the intervening 13 years, both men have gone on to win UFC championships and headline pay-per-views. McGregor became the company’s most bankable star and Holloway one of its most beloved warriors.

McGregor is 37, while Holloway is 34. Neither has held an official, non-BMF belt since 2020. Max didn’t lose for 13 fights after the McGregor defeat. But now he’s lost two of his last three. But I think his form is less of a concern than McGregor’s inactivity.

Similar lay-offs have had mixed results for UFC fighters. Nick Diaz’s drug suspension and other mitigating factors kept him out of the cage for six years between his fight with Anderson Silva and his loss to Robbie Lawler. But The Korean Zombie returned from a three-year lay-off to fulfil mandatory national service with a victory over Bermudez.

We will not truly know what McGregor is capable of until the bell rings. But I think Holloway’s battle-hardened edge will see him through inside the distance. Holloway by knockout or stoppage at 4/5 sounds about right.