Tennis Betting Tips: Mboko to meet her maker in Bouzas Maneiro

Monday sees the start of the 2025 Canadian Open quarter-finals, taking place in Toronto (ATP) and Montreal (WTA).

Below are my Monday Tennis Betting Tips, featuring a home favourite.

Set Betting - Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (ESP) 2-1 vs Victoria Mboko (CAN) @ 6/1

Two surprise quarter-finalists in Montreal, Victoria Mboko and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, will now both believe that they can advance to the semi-finals of this year's Canadian Open.

Home hero Mboko, who doesn't turn 19 until August 26, beat Kimberly Birrell (7-5, 6-3), Sofia Kenin (6-2, 6-3) and Marie Bouzkova (1-6, 6-3, 6-0) before upsetting the odds against World No. 2 Coco Gauff (6-1, 6-4) in the last 16 on the weekend.

The American-born, Canadian-raised teenager will have the full support of the crowd on Monday, when she takes on Spaniard Bouzas Maneiro, who, in contrast to Mboko, has been forced to three sets in all but one of her matches at this tournament.

The 22-year-old overcame a couple of Americans, Louisa Chirico (5-7, 7-5, 6-4) and Ashlyn Krueger (6-4, 6-4), before beating Aoi Ito (4-6, 7-5, 6-3) in the third round and Lin Zhu (7-5, 1-6, 6-2) in the last 16.

Bouzas Maneiro is now in the top 50 in the WTA live rankings after reaching her first WTA 1000 quarter-final, but Mboko heads into their final-eight contest as the clear favourite.

I understand the logic, with Mboko playing some sensational tennis in Montreal, where she will be backed by the stadium spectators. Furthermore, Bouzas Maneiro nearly contrived to lose her last match against Zhu, taking a 5-2 lead in the first set and only edging out her Chinese counterpart 7-5, before losing five straight games in the second and having to recover from an early break of serve in the third.

However, some of her play in the first set, which was punctuated by a rain delay, was superb, as she hit winner after winner. If she can maintain her focus for a longer period against Mboko, then she stands a good shot of upsetting the odds.

Mboko made light work of two-time Grand Slam winner Gauff and is destined for a career at the top. However, it's fair to say that Gauff didn't bring her A-game, and two double-faults in the final game of the match handed the victory to the Canadian.

This is a tie that could go the distance, and over 21.5 total games looks like the safer bet at 11/10.

However, given the odds on offer, I'm backing Bouzas Maneiro to win 2-1.

Total Games - Over 23.5 in Alex Michelsen (USA) vs Karen Khachanov (Wrl) @ 1/1

Twenty-year-old Alex Michelsen beat compatriot Learner Tien (6-3, 6-3) in the last 16 of the Canadian Open on Saturday to become the youngest American to reach the quarter-finals since Andy Roddick in 2003.

Michelsen had first overcome the challenges of Tomas Barrios Vera (7-6, 6-3) and Lorenzo Musetti (3-6, 7-6, 6-4) to set up a fourth-round tie with Tien, one which he dealt with comfortably, as he was broken just once, at the start of the second set.

On Monday, Michelsen takes on World No. 16, Karen Khachanov, who knocked out Juan Pablo Ficovich (6-4, 6-2), Emilio Nava (6-7, 6-4, 6-1) and Casper Ruud (6-4, 7-5) to reach the final eight in Toronto.

The 29-year-old has enjoyed a solid season on tour, notably making the quarter-finals of Wimbledon last month, but prior to this event, had only achieved back-to-back wins on hard court once this calendar year, back in mid-January at the Australian Open, where his run was ended in the third round by Michelsen (3-6, 6-7, 2-6).

With that win firmly in mind, Michelsen will be optimistic over his chances on Monday, while being acutely aware of why he is considered the underdog.

At 13/8, I do like Michelsen's odds to advance to the semi-finals, but considering Khachanov's form, I'm backing over 23.5 games.

I can see a couple of competitive sets here, with a third possible, so at EVS, 24+ games is easily achievable, in my opinion.

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