For the first time since 2019, the ATP China Open is back and the absence of Novak Djokovic means Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz are expected to battle it out for glory.
ATP China Open 2023 Odds
Daniil Medvedev to win ATP China Open @ 7/2
It has been a tumultuous year for Medvedev, but on the hard courts he has excelled once again, having reached the final of the US Open at the start of September.
Medvedev lost in straight sets to Djokovic on that occasion, but it was nonetheless a strong campaign featuring wins over Andrey Rublev and Carlos Alcaraz amongst others.
Alcaraz looks like Medvedev’s fiercest competition for the title in Beijing but his recent run at the Canadian Open, Cincinnati Masters and US Open failed to yield a title.
Moreover, Medvedev’s win over the Spaniard at Flushing Meadows is likely to give him a psychological advantage in the draw.
Medvedev holds a Tour-leading 33 wins on the hard courts this season and has claimed four titles on the surface in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai and Miami in 2023. Indeed, 18 of his 20 career titles have come on this surface.
It looks like a tough start to the tournament for Medvedev on paper, but his first-round opponent Tommy Paul suffered three straight-set defeats at the recent Davis Cup and is not in great form.
There is not a lot between top two seeds Medvedev and Alcaraz but there is a great disparity between them on the harder surface, so go with this year’s US Open runner-up to go the distance in China.
Karen Khachanov to win ATP China Open @ 50/1
With Alcaraz and Medvedev so dominant in the betting, it is hard to make a case for anyone else in Beijing but Karen Khachanov could make an appeal at a bigger price.
Khachanov is an intriguing outside selection in this event, having won 27 of his 39 matches on the ATP Tour this year, claiming one title in the process.
That title came earlier in the week at the Zhuhai Championships – an event Khachanov won after dropping just one set.
He took the top seed at the tournament but justified that label with wins over sixth seed Mackenzie McDonald, fourth seed Sebastian Korda and eighth seed Yoshihito Nishioka.
It followed a pretty underwhelming US Open campaign but on the hard-courts of China, Khachanov often plays some of his best tennis.
In the last running of the event back in 2019, Khachanov reached the last four and even had a one-set lead over Dominic Thiem in his semi-final.
Should he get past Lorenzo Musetti in his opener, Khachanov should face Alcaraz in the second round, but it could be a good time to face the Spaniard, who must be cautious of complacency.
Avoiding Medvedev in his half of the draw is a big plus and Khachanov could be a worthwhile each-way pick in Beijing.
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