Strictly Odds: Can Paul Merson defy his elimination odds again?

Strictly Come Dancing’s Movie Week had all the glitz and drama fans expect, truly showcasing the best of this year’s cast. Tasha Ghouri and Aljaž Škorjanec wowed the judges with a heartfelt Rumba inspired by Barbie, topping the leaderboard with 34 points. Other standout performances included Sarah Hadland and Shayne Ward’s elegant Viennese Waltzes, each earning 33 points, while Dr. Punam Krishan and Gorka Marquez made Strictly history with the first Bollywood-inspired Couples' Choice performance, leaving viewers at home in awe.

At the other end of the leaderboard, Toyah Willcox and Neil Jones faced challenges with their Samba to The Little Mermaid's "Poor Unfortunate Souls." Despite their best efforts, the performance scored just 15 points, placing them at risk. In the dance-off, they went head-to-head with Paul Merson and Karen Hauer. Unfortunately, the judges unanimously chose to save Paul, bringing Toyah’s Strictly journey to an end.

As we move into Week 4 of the competition, Betfred's Showbiz Specialist Kayley Cornelius takes a look at the latest odds and offers insights into which stars could be next to go…

*You can get all the latest Strictly Odds over on betfred.com

Paul Merson @ 8/11

Paul Merson has been riding a streak of luck since managing to defy the odds and avoid being the first eliminated from this year’s series. However, after barely escaping the dance-off on Sunday night, it appears Paul’s luck may be running out. Despite boosting his odds, he finds himself back in an all-too-familiar position as the favourite to leave next weekend, now priced at a more definitive 8/11 for elimination.

Movie Week showcased the best in this year’s contestants, with over nine celebs scoring 30 or more combined. As the competition heats up, it’s clear that Paul is progressing at a much slower pace than his peers and still lagging behind in skills. Week four could very well mark the end of his ballroom dancing journey.

Nick Knowles @ 2/1

While this weekend seems to spell game over for Paul, Nick Knowles is a strong contender to join him in the dance-off, priced at 2/1 for elimination. Like Paul, Nick has defied the bookmakers and avoided being the first to go, but even with a free pass this week, his previous performance hints that things might be looking up as he and Luba’s scores steadily improve. With Nick’s ongoing injuries and missed crucial rehearsal time, this weekend will be the real test—can he pick up where he left off, or will this be the week where it all falls apart?

Pete Wicks @ 5/1

Fan favourite Pete Wicks also finds himself in a tough spot heading into this week. Although he’s managed to avoid the dance-off thus far, he’s still lingering at the bottom of the leaderboard and will need to step it up.

However, his popularity with viewers could be a saving grace. With romance rumours circulating about him and pro-partner Jowita Pryzstal, fans are rooting for them to go far in the competition. Many punters believe he might sail through this competition on popularity alone, which explains why he’s priced at 5/1 to go next weekend despite his low overall ranking.

Punam Krishan @ 16/1

Dr. Punam being the star of Movie Week is exactly the confidence boost she needed. She’s shown not only to herself but also to the viewers at home and her fellow competitors that she has serious potential to go far in this competition. Her performance was a real showstopper, but despite that, she’s still not in the clear. Let’s not forget that before last week, she and Gorka were scraping by with concerningly low scores and were far from safe.

Last week’s success was just the start for Punam, and if she wants to climb the leaderboard and defy her 16/1 odds of elimination, she’ll need to bring that same fire, energy, and confidence to the floor this Saturday. The pressure's on, and consistency is key if she’s aiming for the long haul.