Love Island Odds: Can Lorenzo and Julia Go All the Way?

Five weeks into the Love Island 2026 season and the villa is fully unhinged. We’ve had messy recoupling’s, rogue bombshells dropping every five minutes and enough drama to keep the group chat alive till 3am.

Bombshell Elicia didn’t even pretend to settle in quietly, she walked in, clocked Finley and immediately spun his head despite his “strong connection” with Ellie. Ellie was fuming, obviously and suddenly one of the villa’s most solid couples started crumbling like an M&S cookie. Yet again, the villa proves no one is safe and loyalty is basically a myth.

Casa Amor is done, the final is creeping up and every choice now feels like it could make or break someone’s shot at that £50k. Some couples look strong, but with public votes, surprise twists and new temptations landing out of nowhere, even the OGs are sweating. As we head into the final stretch, it could genuinely go either way, here are the favourite girl and boy according to the odds and why they’re the ones to watch...

*You can get all the latest Love Island 2026 Odds over on betfred.com

Top Female:

Julia Majchrzak @ 7/5

Julia Majchrzak has basically stormed the season since arriving during Casa Amor and it makes total sense, she’s now the favourite to be crowned the winning girl. The 26‑year‑old insurance broker from London walked in with confidence, energy and no fear of stirring the pot. She explored connections, asked the hard questions and never softened her delivery.

Her choice to get to know Fitzy had the villa and social media in chaos at first, but viewers have warmed to her straight‑up vibe. The tension with Lola kept bubbling and Julia stayed honest throughout, which only made people root for her more.

Since coupling up with Lorenzo, she has levelled up again. The pair have become a proper fan favourite duo. They even topped a public vote and got the power to choose which couple left the villa, which shows how locked in the public is with them.

Julia has been involved in plenty of heated moments, but her confidence, authenticity and refusal to fold under pressure have only boosted her popularity. Viewers now see her and Lorenzo as genuine contenders for the £50,000 prize and her spot as the favourite feels completely deserved as the competition heads into its final weeks.

Jasmine Muller @ 13/8

Jasmine Muller has been one of the most talked about Islanders from the very beginning. Her confidence, honesty and fiery personality have made her a constant presence in the villa’s biggest moments. The fashion business owner has never been far from the drama, whether she is navigating messy love triangles or standing her ground during tense confrontations. She has carried herself like a full on baddie from day one and viewers know it.

She has attracted criticism at times, but Jasmine has stayed one of the show’s biggest personalities and continues to split opinion among viewers. Her relationship with Kavan has survived multiple tests, including Casa Amor. No matter how messy things get, they keep finding their way back to each other.

With odds of 13/8, Jasmine is still firmly in the running to be crowned this year’s winning girl. If she and Kavan can avoid any last min twists and keep strengthening their connection, they will have a real chance of challenging for the win.

Angelista @ 20/1

Angelista has been one of the villa’s most genuine Islanders from the moment she walked in. The 24‑year‑old nurse from Staffordshire came in wanting someone quietly confident, attentive and actually consistent, and she made it clear she wasn’t here for pointless drama.

Her journey has had plenty of ups and downs. She started with Ope, but their connection barely got any screen time even though fans thought it had real potential. More recently, she has been on an emotional rollercoaster with Simba. His head turned, things got messy and then he found his way back to her. They have rekindled things, but it hasn’t been smooth.

Through all of it, Angelista has stayed calm, kind and authentic. She avoids unnecessary arguments, stays grounded and handles setbacks with maturity, which has earned her a lot of respect from viewers.

Angelista is one of the outsiders to win, but if she and Simba keep rebuilding and finish strong, she could easily climb the rankings and surprise everyone in the final.

Top Male:

Lorenzo Alessi @ 7/5

Lorenzo Alessi has been my personal favourite since day one. He rarely goes more than a few days without ending up in the centre of some villa chaos, and his storyline with Jasmine was easily one of the season’s biggest. Their chemistry kept bubbling long after they moved on, sparking the iconic “affair in plain sight” accusations that had viewers glued to their screens.

He then had a brief spark with Yasmin, lovingly dubbed “The Mins” by Lorenzo himself, but it fizzled out as Casa Amor flipped everything.

Now he’s settled with Julia, and they look stronger than ever. They’ve become one of the villa’s most solid pairs, even if some viewers still joke that Lorenzo is basically on a long lads’ holiday in Mallorca and making mates along the way.

Lorenzo is one of the favourites to be crowned this year’s winning boy. Whether he’s here for love or just the vibes is still up for debate, but the odds are definitely in his favour.

Kavan Murphy @ 7/4

Kavan Murphy has quickly become one of this season’s favourites, with his connection with Jasmine getting stronger again after a seriously rocky patch. Casa Amor looked like the end when he walked back in with Charleen, leaving Jasmine heartbroken and viewers fully stressed. Somehow, they found their way back, rebuilt the trust and proved they can survive one of the show’s biggest tests.

Fans have also loved watching Kavan’s bond with his brother Aidan. Their dynamic has been one of the villa’s most wholesome storylines, with Aidan backing him through every high and low.

Kavan is one of the leading contenders to take the winning spot alongside Jasmine. If they keep things steady and avoid any last min chaos, they’re firmly in the mixer to finish the series on top.

Aidan Murphy @ 20/1

Aidan Murphy’s Love Island journey has been a lot bumpier than his brother Kavan’s. He’s had a few connections fall flat, but things finally look like they’re clicking now that he’s found a promising spark with Priya.

Aidan has definitely divided opinion at times, especially with how eager he’s been for kisses, which left some viewers unsure about him. But he’s also shown a funny, down‑to‑earth side that people have really warmed to. His bond with Kavan has been one of the season’s sweetest storylines, and he’s never stopped putting himself out there even when things weren’t going his way.

At 20/1, Aidan sits in the outsider category for the winning boy spot, but if things with Priya keep growing, he could still surprise people. For me, he is genuinely one of the villa’s most sincere Islanders, and it finally feels like he might be getting the ending he’s been chasing.