Eurovision Semi-Final 1 Prediction: Finland to take first step towards victory?

It’s that time of year again when sequins are blinding, vocals are unhinged in the best way and Europe collectively decides to embrace pure pop chaos. Eurovision 2026 has officially landed and Vienna is about to become the centre of glitter‑powered drama, key changes and voting patterns that make absolutely zero sense.

With Semi‑Final 1 kicking off tonight, the race for the iconic glass microphone is officially on. Here are the frontrunners ready to cause scenes, melt timelines and shake up this year’s Eurovision betting markets… Here are our Eurovision Semi-Final Betting Tips...

Finland @ 8/11

Finland roll into Semi Final 1 as the act everyone’s side eyeing because they look that strong. Priced at 8/11, they’re the clear favourites to top the night and Betfred traders already have them pencilled as the favourites for the Grand Final without blinking.

Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen will perform 'Liekinheitin', a full throttle burst of drama, vocals and pyro that feels engineered to dominate a live arena. The hook hits instantly, the staging is pure spectacle and the fan hype has been building at speed.

If Finland land this cleanly on Tuesday, it’s hard to see anyone else getting close to them in the scoring.

Greece @ 11/4

If Finland wobble, Greece look like the nation most likely to snatch the crown in Semi Final 1. Priced at 11/4, they’ve been climbing steadily in the markets and head into Tuesday as the standout challenger with real upset potential.

Akylas is representing Greece with 'Ferto', a powerful, atmospheric entry that blends emotional vocals with cinematic production and striking staging. It’s already turned plenty of heads in the fan community thanks to its distinctive sound and intense performance style, giving Greece a genuine shot at making a major impact.

Finland may be the favourites, but Greece are absolutely the act breathing down their neck. If Ferto lands live, this could get very interesting very fast.

Israel @ 5/1

Israel might be sitting behind Finland and Greece in the odds, but at 5/1 they are still a major threat in Semi-Final 1. Emotional vocals always work on the Eurovision stage, and if Israel connect with viewers on Tuesday, they could absolutely outperform their price.

Noam Bettan is bringing 'Michelle', a polished emotional pop ballad that slowly levels up into a big cinematic finish. The vocals hit, the staging is clean and fans have already been buzzing about how sincere and polished the whole package feels.

Israel have a strong Eurovision history and they usually deliver when the pressure is on, which keeps them firmly in the mix. Their current presence on the world political stage could still create some negative voting energy, but if the performance lands, they are definitely capable of shaking up the top of the leaderboard.

You can follow all our Eurovision Betting Tips over on Betfred Insights right up until the final on May 16.