Eurovision Semi-Final 1 Betting Tips: Sweden dominate as 1/5 favourites

It’s that time of year again—when sequins sparkle brighter, harmonies soar higher, and the eyes of a continent turn to one stage. The Eurovision Song Contest 2025 is finally upon us, bringing with it the thrilling chaos and passionate fanfare that has made the event a cultural phenomenon for over six decades.

Here’s a look at our frontrunners to win big in Switzerland tomorrow night with the latest Eurovision Semi Final 1 Betting Tips…

On Tuesday, May 13, the city of Basel will open its doors to millions of viewers and music lovers around the world as it hosts the first of two semi-finals. The stakes couldn’t be higher. With just 10 places in the Grand Final up for grabs, 15 countries will battle it out under the glittering lights of the St. Jakobshalle arena, each hoping to win over juries, audiences, and punters alike. 

As rehearsals draw to a close and the final odds begin to take shape, all eyes are now on who will make the biggest impact on Tuesday night. Will the favourites live up to their billing, or could a dark horse surge forward and steal the show?

Whether you’re backing the favourite or placing your faith in an underdog, one thing’s for certain—tomorrow night will be essential viewing and offer our first real glimpse at who might just go all the way in this year’s competition.

*You can get all the latest Eurovision 2025 Odds over on betfred.com

🇸🇪 Sweden @ 1/5

Sweden entered this year’s competition looking utterly unstoppable. The outright favourites to take home the trophy later this month, they’re also tipped to dominate Tuesday’s semi-final, currently priced at a short 1/5. With such commanding odds, it would take nothing short of a miracle for another country to outperform them tomorrow night.

Representing Sweden is the Finnish-Swedish comedy trio KAJ with "Bara bada bastu," a playful, sauna-themed tune that has taken Scandinavia by storm. The song, performed entirely in Swedish, marks Sweden’s first entry in its native language since 1998. Its quirky staging—complete with spruce trees and a transforming sauna set—has captivated audiences, and its viral success on Spotify’s global charts has only bolstered its momentum. Unless something wildly unexpected occurs, Sweden’s place in Grand Final is all but guaranteed.

🇪🇪 Estonia @ 8/1

In the unlikely event that Sweden slips up and falters, there’s one act waiting in the wings to pounce: Estonia. If you’re the type to punt against the grain, Estonia are the rising stars worth keeping on your radar. Priced at 8/1 to win the semi-final and 50/1 to qualify outright, they represent a compelling outside shot with serious upside.

This year, Estonia are represented by avant-garde rapper Tommy Cash with his track "Espresso Macchiato." Blending electro swing with Italian and English lyrics, the song is as eccentric as its performer. Cash’s provocative style and distinctive choreography have already stirred controversy—particularly in Italy—but his boldness could resonate with viewers seeking something different. If you’re backing a dark horse for overall success, Estonia’s audacious entry could well deliver a surprise tomorrow night.

🇺🇦 Ukraine @ 25/1

At first glance, Ukraine may not appear to be a savvy bet. Priced at 25/1 in the semi-final winner market, they currently trail behind the Netherlands, but that alone doesn’t tell the whole story. With mounting criticism of Claude’s rehearsal footage for the Dutch entry and growing concerns over how the Netherlands’ performance will be received by juries and the public, Ukraine could be poised for a climb.

Representing Ukraine this year is the band Ziferblat with the haunting "Bird of Pray," a dramatic ballad that builds from gentle piano to a powerful orchestral climax. The trio—comprising vocalist Daniil Leshchynskyi, guitarist Valentyn Leshchynskyi, and drummer Fedir Khodakov—deliver a performance that’s both minimalist and impactful. Ukraine have long been a force in Eurovision, with a history of pulling off memorable performances that resonate across Europe. Don’t be surprised if they outperform their current odds on the night.

🇳🇱 Netherlands @ 1/200 to Qualify

Despite sitting at 10/1 in the semi-final winner market, the Netherlands are a curious case. While their chances of topping the night appear slim, their odds in the ‘To Qualify’ market tell a very different story. At 1/200, it’s as close to betting certainty as you can find—suggesting the Dutch act are almost guaranteed to make it through to the final.

Claude, representing the Netherlands with "C’est la vie," has delivered a confident if not controversial rehearsal week. The dance-pop track, sung in both French and English, serves as a heartfelt tribute to his mother, emphasising resilience and positivity. Though staging choices have drawn mixed reactions, the production is slick, and the song’s modern sound could still resonate well, especially with the younger demographic. If they can translate their studio polish into a compelling live performance, qualification seems inevitable, even if an outright win is a long shot.

You can follow all our Eurovision Betting Tips over on Betfred Insights right up until the final on May 17.