Western Force vs Reds Prediction: Red-hot Reds to outscore Force

The final Super Rugby game of the weekend (Saturday 08:35) sees the current top ranked Aussie side travel out west to the current lowest ranked Aussie side. Our Rugby expert Alex Cox is back with his Western Force vs Reds prediction. 

The Force have lost all 4 games so far this season, by an average margin of 14 points and unsurprisingly they are bottom of the log with one solitary point. Their biggest problem so far this season has been complacency. They have often found themselves in positive attacking positions but have not been able to convert pressure into points.

Scoring points is not something that is an issue for the Reds, who have been scoring freely to date and currently average 38 points per game. Les Kiss has had a dream start to his new Queensland gig, winning 3 out of 4 games – with an Extra Time loss to the excellent Hurricanes the only blemish on his early season report. The players seem to have bought into his attacking game plan and the results have followed.

With the Reds strong team cohesion and attacking intent I fully expect them to score 5+ tries against this Force side. With the Force not showing they can contribute much to the scoreboard so far, I think the Reds will prove too much to handle and the Queenslanders should run out by victors by a 14+ margin in this one.

Team news

Force

The Force have made a few changes this week after a few bodies return from the physio table. The front-row will be Coxon, Horton and Medrano, with Williams and Franklin in behind them. No sign of Wells this week in the back-row this week meaning it will be Anstee, Tizzano and Harris.

Out wide the Force are able to recall White after he was injured last week, and Donaldson is his half-back partner. Steward and Spink are in the midfield this week – the latter returns from a calf injury that has kept him out the last few weeks. Kuenzle is shifted out to the wing this week, with Tiatia on the other side and Englishman Potter moved to full-back.

Reds

Les Kiss has picked a fairly settled side for his teams trip West. Ravai, Faessler and Nonggorr continue in the front-row, with Smith and Uru in the second-row. Uru has been one of the biggest improver's so far this season and will certainly have made an impression with new Wallaby Coach Schmidt. No change in the back row – Wright, McReight and Wilson continue their partnership.

McDermott continues in the 9 shirt this week and he’ll be joined by Lynagh at 10, who moves up from the bench last week. Although Reds fans will be gutted to learn that Henry suffered a season ending knee injury last week, they are at least able to welcome back Paisami who slots straight into the Midfield alongside Flook. Grealy, Vunivalu and Campbell continue as the back-three.

Reds -11 @ 10/11

The Reds have covered this handicap in the last 3 H2H’s and since those results, it is the Reds that strengthened. The Reds have been scoring some superb tries, both out-wide and up-front. They have converted their maul into a dangerous weapon but have retained their threat in the wider channels too, which will keep the Force guessing all game. The back-row of Wright and McReight and Wilson will dominate this game and their impact and combination will be the catalyst for a strong Reds performance and victory.