Glasgow are one game away from becoming the first Scottish team to win a European trophy and are unlikely to give up on that dream without a fight against a star-studded Toulon.
Toulon are the 2/5 favourites to win the Challenge Cup for the first time having lost in the final four times previously. Glasgow are 2/1 to cap off an excellent season with a trophy, while it’s 20/1 the game will finish level after 80 minutes.
Toulon vs Glasgow Warriors Betting Tips
- Glasgow +6.5 Handicap @ 5/6
Date: Friday 19th May, 2023
Location: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Richie Gray and Rory Darge start on the bench for Glasgow, with JP du Preez and Sione Vailanu getting the nod in their place.
Domingo Miotti starts at fly-half in place of the suspended Tom Jordan, while Huw Jones is reunited with midfield partner Sione Tuipulotu in the centre.
Charles Ollivon is free to play for Toulon after his red card in the semi-final win over Benetton was rescinded and he features in a glitzy team that also contains the likes of Sergio Parisse , Cheslin Kolbe and Dan Biggar.
Glasgow +6.5 Handicap @ 5/6
Glasgow had never got beyond the quarter-finals of a European competition before this season so just reaching the final is an achievement in itself. But, Franco Smith’s side aren’t the type to rest on their laurels and a squad made up largely of Scotland internationals can put Toulon to the test.
The Warriors have been on a roll since December, winning 16 of their last 19 matches as they finished fourth in the United Rugby Championship.
They subsequently lost to Munster in the URC play-offs but have shown they can come out on top in a knockout environment having seen off Scarlets, Lions and the Dragons to reach the Challenge Cup final.
Three-time Champions Cup winners Toulon are easily the biggest test Glasgow have faced in that run and boast a team packed full of star power, including several France internationals, Wales fly-half Dan Biggar and Italy legend Sergio Parisse.
Having missed out on the Top-14 play-offs, the Challenge Cup is a season-defining game for Toulon. However, they don’t have a great record in this competition, losing all four of their previous appearances in the final, including when a six-point favourite for last year’s decider with Lyon.
It was an equally star-studded team that lost to Lyon and, mixing in an underwhelming away record that’s seen them lose nine of their 14 domestic road games, they look a little vulnerable.
Glasgow’s high-risk, high-reward strategy of pursuing tries over penalties has largely paid off in Europe this season and they’ve averaged over 35 points and five tries per game on their run to the final.
That attacking mindset, coupled with some nice options for Smith to introduce off the bench, makes them lively underdogs and there’s enough in the Warriors’ locker for them to keep this close.