France vs Ireland prediction: More Paris misery for the Irish

France and Ireland open the 2026 Six Nations on Thursday night (20:10 GMT, ITV1) at Stade de France, in what is already being billed as a potential title‑shaping encounter.

Les Bleus edged a tight three‑horse race in 2025 to win the title, and they are widely expected to battle England for the crown again this year.

Ireland, ranked fourth in the world - one place higher than France - have won five of their last seven Tests since losing to the French early in 2025, with their only defeats coming against Southern Hemisphere powerhouses South Africa and New Zealand.

However, Andy Farrell’s side arrive in Paris severely depleted, with a long list of injuries and one high‑profile suspension forcing major changes to the matchday squad.

Team News

France welcome back their superstar captain Antoine Dupont, returning from the ACL injury he suffered in this fixture last year.

Fabien Galthie has named a powerful side featuring mobile second-row pairing Charles Ollivon and Mickael Guillard. Anthony Jelonch starts at No. 8 with Matthieu Jalibert forming an exciting half-back pairing with Dupont.

Out wide, Louis Bielle‑Biarrey and Theo Attissogbe, who takes the jersey of a dropped Damian Penaud, provide a serious attacking threat.

Meanwhile, Farrell has named one of the most radically reshuffled squads of his tenure, with injuries ruling out Tadhg Furlong, Andrew Porter, Mack Hansen and Hugo Keenan, while Bundee Aki has been dropped for disciplinary reasons.

In the back three, Jamie Osborne starts at full‑back in what will be his first action since Ireland faced Japan in November.

Tommy O’Brien and Jacob Stockdale are named on the wings with Stuart McCloskey partnering Garry Ringrose in midfield, while Sam Prendergast gets the nod at fly‑half ahead of Jack Crowley and Harry Byrne, forming a half‑back pairing with Jamison Gibson‑Park.

There is no place in the starting team for British and Irish Lion James Lowe with Caelan Doris captaining the side from No. 8, supported by Josh van der Flier and Ryan Baird in the back row.

France vs Ireland Odds

France are 1/8 favourites to start their title defence with a home win, while Ireland are priced at 5/1 and the draw is available at 25/1.

Handicap - France -14 @ 20/21

Ireland have won two of the last four Six Nations titles, but this is not the same settled, battle‑hardened side. The injury crisis and Aki’s suspension leave Farrell relying on inexperienced combinations across the backline and front row.

France, meanwhile, are at home, near full strength, and buoyed by Dupont’s return. They have also won their last two internationals after a difficult run in 2025, suggesting momentum is back on their side.

The Irish have a poor recent record in Paris, winning only twice and drawing once in 11 visits since 2000, when they won in the French capital for the first time in almost 30 years.

Les Bleus have won 12 of their last 13 Six Nations games at the Stade de France, including the last seven in a row, so with Ireland missing so many frontline players, France -14 looks the sensible play.

First Half Handicap - France -5.5 @ 8/11

France have not trailed at the interval in a Six Nations encounter in Paris since the opening round in 2018.

They opened last season’s campaign by racing into a 28-0 half-time lead at home to Wales and can get the better of the Irish over the first 40 minutes too.

Farrell’s team were sluggish in the first half of their home defeat to the Springboks in November to continue a trend that emerged in last year’s Six Nations.

They trailed 13-10 to Wales in Cardiff before coming good after the break and managed to establish only a three-point advantage over Italy in Rome on the final day.

First Tryscorer - Louis Bielle‑Biarrey @ 9/2

Bielle‑Biarrey has become one of France’s most dangerous finishers and starts again on the wing in Paris.

He crossed the whitewash in all five of his side’s Six Nations matches last year, grabbing the opener in the big games against England and Ireland.

With Jalibert and Dupont pulling the strings, France are likely to target the visitors’ makeshift back three early and often.

Given Ireland’s recent slow starts and disrupted defensive structure, Bielle‑Biarrey is a strong first tryscorer option.

France vs Ireland Six Nations FAQ

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