Samoa vs Scotland Prediction: Scots’ defence to be tested

All eyes may be on the Lions' first Test against Australia in Brisbane this weekend, but for Gregor Townsend and his touring Scotland side their game against Samoa in Auckland is the focus. It's the third and final outing for Scotland with Friday's Test at Eden Park, Auckland (08:35 BST, BBC iPlayer) offering them the opportunity to end on a high note.

The Scots beat Maori All Blacks 29-26 in Whangarei but lost 29-14 to Fiji in Suva last weekend and this final contest against the Samoans sees Townsend fielding what he believes to be his strongest XV. Below are my Samoa vs Scotland predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Townsend has made five changes to his side as Kyle Steyn moves from left to right wing as Arron Reed comes in at 11 for Scotland, while Rory Hutchinson and Stafford McDowall make up a new centre partnership.

In the pack, Gregor Brown comes into the second row and Andy Onyeama-Christie takes over at blind-side flanker.

Half-backs George Horne and Adam Hastings are listed as replacements alongside tight-head Fin Richardson, who could make his debut off the bench.

After being red-carded in the loss to Fiji, Darcy Graham has joined the Lions squad and he will be joined by loose-head prop Rory Sutherland and hooker Ewan Ashman after this match. Lock Marshall Sykes drops to the bench.

Meanwhile, Samoa head coach Lemalu Tusi Pisi has selected three debutants in his starting XV in Pita Anae-Ah Sue, Jacob Umaga and Latrell Ah Kiong.

Umaga was born in England and he picked up a Test cap for the Red Rose under Eddie Jones back in 2021.

There are also three uncapped players on the bench in the form of Kaynan Siteine-Tua, Niko Jones and Connor Tupa'i.

Samoa vs Scotland Odds

Scotland are as short as 1/14 to end their summer tour on a winning note, with Samoa priced at 15/2 for the victory and a draw in Auckland priced at 25/1.

The handicap is set at 18-points, with Scotland 10/11 to overcome it and the handicap tie priced at 28/1.

Samoa +20 points @ 8/11

Problems off the field mean that this will be Samoa's first outing of 2025, with no Test action since they beat the USA 18-13 in a Pacific Nations Cup play-off last September.

A 20-point start is nonetheless looking generous. Scotland's tour has so far consisted of a 29-26 win over the Maori All Blacks and a 29-14 loss to Fiji in Suva last weekend.

It appears unlikely they will blow the Samoans away and head coach Townsend is placing the emphasis on a positive result.

"We want to finish this tour with a real strong performance and finish on a high from a playing point of view," he said.

The Scotland chief is fielding what he believes is his strongest side, but they may not cut loose and Samoa can stick with them on the scoreboard.

Click here for the latest Rugby Union Odds

Find more Rugby Union Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights