Reds vs Brumbies Prediction: Reds to get back on track

After an unexpected flop in Perth, Les Kiss will ensure his Reds side move up the gears to edge the Brumbies in this Aussie derby on Saturday morning (08:35).

Our rugby union expert Alex Cox has previewed the Super Rugby clash and shared his Reds vs Brumbies predictions.

After five rounds, both the Reds and Brumbies sit in the top half of the table which will certainly please both coaches. They hold ambitions of obtaining a top-four spot to give them the best chance in the play-offs, meaning Aussie derby games like this could be crucial come the end of the campaign.

The Reds started the season brightly but came unstuck last week in their trip to Perth. They seemed entirely off the pace – especially in the first half – and allowed the Force to dominate the game. They struggled to break down their defensive line, which in their previous four games was not an issue. Back at home at Suncorp this week, though, I am expecting a reaction.

Brumbies come into this game after three wins on the trot, including a comfortable 60-21 win against a lacklustre Moana Pasifika side most recently. They have been growing into the season and seem to be clicking in attack now. They will offer a stern test to the Reds but I think they’ll fall just short in Queensland.

Team News

Les Kiss has only made two changes to the side that lost last week, so it’s a similar line-up again for the Queenslanders. Ravai, Faessler and Toomaga-Allen will combine the front-row – the latter coming in for Nonggorr who drops to the bench this week. Uru and Smith continue in the second-row, along with the ever-present Wright, McReight and Wilson as the back-row. The battle of the back-row will be fierce this week, and will go a long way in determining who wins this game.

McDermott and Lynagh continue as the half-backs, along with Paisami and Flook in the Centres. Grealy remains on the left-wing and Petaia will be on the right-wing this week, replacing Vunivalu. Don’t expect Jordy to stay on his wing though – Les Kiss will ensure he pops up all over the park to make an impact in this one. Finally, Campbell will be at 15 again this week.

The Brumbies have unsurprisingly named a strong side for this one, with Slipper, Lachlan Longergan and Kautai responsible for setting the platform up-front. Swain and Neville will be in the second-row, with Valentini, Brown and Cale completing the pack. Cale has impressed so far this season, with Valentini moving to six to allow for both strike runners to be involved.

Ryan Lonergan will be at nine this week, with Lolesio continuing at fly-half. Noah has had a great start to the season and seems to have matured after his stint in the south of France with Toulon. Tua and Creighton will be in the midfield – the latter could well face off against his brother Lawson who’s on the bench for the Reds. Speedster Toole is on the left-wing and Sapsford the right-wing, with Wright continuing at full-back.

Reds win by 1-12 points inclusive @ 19/10

There’s some extra motivation at stake for the Reds this week - not only to right the wrongs of their performance in Perth but also to avenge their embarrassing 24-52 loss in this fixture in Brisbane last year.

But this Reds side are significantly better this season and although we had to wait until the second half to see their attack in full-flight, I expect they will be significantly better from the outset this week.

I do expect Brumbies to stay relatively close though, which is why I see value in the 1-12 margin as opposed to the shorter price for the -4.5 handicap.

Find more Rugby Union Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights