Olympics Rugby 7s Predictions: Argentina can take home gold

The Men’s Olympic 7s kicks off on Wednesday, July 24 and runs until Saturday, July 27 and will be contested between 12 of the best 7s teams from around the world, all fighting for a spot on the podium. The teams have been divided into three pools based on seeding:

• Pool A: New Zealand, Ireland, South Africa, Japan
• Pool B: Australia, Argentina, Samoa, Kenya
• Pool C: Fiji, France, USA, Uruguay

Teams that finish in first and second place in each pool will qualify for the quarter-finals, along with two of the best-ranked third-placed sides. From the quarter-finals onwards it is knockout rugby, all the way to the gold medal match in the final. Below in my in-depth preview, you can find my Olympics Rugby 7s predictions.

Olympic Rugby Sevens Pool A Preview

New Zealand are deservedly Pool A favourites after a positive end to the World Series season, winning the final two tournaments before the conclusion in Madrid. They struggled to replicate their previous 7s form in the early tournaments but produced some excellent performances in Hong Kong and Singapore to get back on track. They have suffered a number of injuries throughout this season but have finally been able to name their strongest squad to head into this Olympic Games, as they strive to upgrade their Tokyo silver to a Paris gold. Akuila Rokolisoa and Andrew Knewstubb will be pulling the strings and keep an eye out for Fehi Fineanganofo and Moses Leo in the wide channels to finish off the opportunities.

Ireland have been consistently strong all season, finish third on three occasions along with a second-place in Singapore, leading them to finish second overall at the end of the season. They have a cohesive side that is glued together by 2022 World 7s player of the year Terry Kennedy. They play an attritional brand of 7s, staying patient in both attack and defence, waiting for their chance and not forcing opportunities. This game plan requires a remarkable level of fitness which this Irish 7s team possesses in spades. Keep an eye out for youngster Zac Ward who is an abrasive ball carrier with a surprising turn of pace.

South Africa - by their own high standards – have had a disappointing year on the World Series. They finished seventh out of 12 and only booked their ticket to Paris 2024 via the repechage tournament in Monaco last month, after failing to qualify via the Africa Cup when they lost to Kenya. They are certainly still a threat but may struggle to overcome the Kiwis and the Irish in the group matches. However with seasoned 7s professionals like Selvyn Davids and electrifying youngsters like Tristan Leyds they are certainly capable of an upset.

Japan are a relatively unknown 7s side as although their women’s side is on the World Series, the men play in the tournament below named the Challenger Series. They have a few familiar faces in their squad such as offload wizard Shotaro Tsuoka and skipper Kippei Ishida but they will struggle to progress out of the Pool and will likely to be on the receiving end of some big score losses as the other three sides look to improve their points difference.

Olympic Rugby Sevens Pool B Preview

Australia have had a mixed season leading into the Olympics, with two second-place finishes their best return this season. They have had to change around their squad more than most due to injury, as well as trying new players such as Michael Hooper along the way. The Australians rely heavily on their two playmakers in Maurice Longbottom and Dietrich Roache but the former has struggled with injury and only participated in a few tournaments this year. Thankfully for the Aussies medal hopes though, he is available in Paris and will be joined by Brumbies winger Corey Toole, who possesses astonishing speed. NRL-bound winger Mark Nawaqanitawase has also joined the squad and will be hoping to finish his Union career with an Olympic Medal.

Argentina come into this Olympic Games after achieving their best ever World Series season performance, finishing first on the Leaderboard. After finishing second in the opening tournament in Dubai, they won three tournaments in a row in Cape Town, Perth and Vancouver. They did struggle in the second half of the season and did not medal, partly due to the absence of 2021 World 7s Player of the Year Marcos Moneta. He is one of the quickest and elusive players on the 7s circuit and the side certainly missed his turn of speed, however he has returned from injury to take his spot in Paris. His presence could reignite this well-balanced Pumas side and take them deep into the tournament. They will have to get through the pool games without 2023 World 7s Player of the Year Rodrigo Isgro as he serves a three-match ban for an ugly tackle in a heated match against the French in Madrid, but he will return for the knockout matches as a significant boost.

Samoa and Kenya are certainly capable of staying competitive in the pool games but will struggle to pull off an upset, meaning it’s likely their head to head pool game will progress to the quarter-finals as one of the best third-placed sides. Samoa have had a very poor season and have been relegated from the World Series, however look to have brought back some seasoned 7s players for this Olympics campaign which could prove significant. Kenya have been on the Challenger series but have earnt promotion at Samoa expense. They are a powerful side but also posses some exciting playmakers such as Patrick Odongo – keep an eye out for him!

Olympic Rugby Sevens Pool C Preview

Fiji have had one of their worst 7s seasons in memory, failing to win a single tournament. Their best return was a third-place finish in Cape Town back in December but since then have not reached a Cup semi-final. They have had a coaching change mid-season after Ben Gollings was sacked and are now led by 7s veteran Osea Kolinisau, who faces a big challenge to overturn their recent form. He has brought some fresh blood into the squad in the form of two Fijian Drua players with Fiji 15’s International experience in Iosefo Masi and Selestino Ravutaumada. On the field, the Fijians will be guided by the majestic Jerry Tuwai who knows a thing or two about winning an Olympics gold medal after winning consecutive golds in Rio and Tokyo. Despite being the reigning Olympic champions, the Fijians have not demonstrated the game management skills this season to suggest they will replicate their recent Olympic success, however it’s hard to ever write them off with a gold medal on the line!

France are the favourites to secure a home soil gold medal. Part of that is due to their recent win in the World Series Final event in Madrid and part of that is because of a certain 15’s scrum-half. The French won one regular season tournament, in Los Angeles, before coming up trumps again in Madrid to clinch the Season Title. They possess a well-balanced squad with power and guile but the differentiator is their defence which is arguably the most intense on the tour – both in line-speed and at the ruck, meaning they win a lot of turnovers. And to sprinkle some additional “Joue” on top, the world best Rugby Union player in Antoine Dupont will be playing. He has already played a few tournaments throughout the season and certainly impressed – providing a calm head and a superb operator in link-up play. The pressure will be on the French, in a bid to help fans forget about last years home World Cup disappointment and win France a gold medal in Paris.

The USA and their coach Mike Friday have been vocally disappointed with their return from this season, only reaching the semi-finals once and losing five other Quarter Finals. They had to wait until Madrid to secure their spot as a World Series side for next season, but they were able to bank their core status after a playoff victory against Samoa. Despite having a poor season, the Americans are still a dangerous 7s side and will be hoping to progress as one of the first or second-placed sides in the Pool. They are without restart wizard Schreuder which is a loss, but with pace of Perry Baker and the excellent Lucas Lacamp, they could be a banana skin to the French and Fijians.

Uruguay are another side that have been in the Challenger series this year, however have now achieved promotion to the World Series next year after winning their recent playoff in Madrid against South American rivals Chile. They have a very challenging pool and will need to pull off at least one unexpected win to progress. What makes things even more difficult is a third of their squad only recently joined their Training camp last week as they were required to play in Uruguay’s 15’s Test Match against France in Montevideo 10 days ago.

Argentina to win Outright @ 100/30

Over the course of the season, Argentina have been the strongest 7s side. They have the most balanced squad in the tournament, with sheer power from players such as Luciano Gonzalez and German Schulz, creative ball players in Santiago Mare and Tobias Wade and then the speed and guile of Marcos Moneta and Rodrigo Isgro. Although Australia with Longbottom and Toole will offer a threat in the group game, I believe Los Pumas will top the pool and set up a likely Quarter Final against South Africa.

The South Americans have a good record against the Blitzbokke this season, winning all 3 of their head to heads. The likely semi-final and final opponents are challenging to map out due to the group permutations, however on their day, with their full squad fit and firing the Argentinians are a thing of beauty and capable of beating anyone in the tournament. Finally, the passion and motivation this Argentinian side displayed to win an unexpected bronze medal in Tokyo was extraordinary, finding a way to victory even with only five men on the field at one point. They have built on that success and find themselves finely poised to go for gold.

Ireland to win Outright @ 10/1

Ireland are often overlooked in the World Series but have produced consistently strong performances throughout this season. They are still a new side on the Series but have accelerated their growth at miraculous speed. Terry Kennedy is arguably the best 7s playmaker in World Rugby, repeatedly finding space for either himself or his team-mates to take advantage of.

Although he doesn’t possess the same lightning speed of a few years ago, Jordon Conroy still has plenty of gas to give defenders nightmares. To balance the side, players such as Harry McNulty, Zac Ward and Jack Kelly offer regular gain-line success and defensive dominance. Ireland do have a tough group with the Kiwi’s and South African’s however if they can find their top gear, they are certainly capable of winning the pool. If they are able to achieve that, they will have an easier quarter--final most likely against the USA. And from the semi-finals, anything can happen.

Take a look at our other Rugby Union odds here.