Newcastle Falcons vs Exeter Prediction: Chiefs to boss Falcons

The uncertainty over the make-up of the Championship means the possibility of relegation is still to be confirmed for the Premiership, a situation that suits winless Newcastle, who host Exeter on Sunday.

The Falcons have lost six on the spin to start the season and will be desperate to avoid making it a far-from-magnificent seven against the visiting Chiefs.

Rob Baxter's side have won four-from-four at home but are yet to get off the mark in two trips on the road.

They lost 24-21 at Kingston Park on this weekend last year but it would be a significant shock if something similar happened on Sunday.

Team News

Home boss Alex Codling has handed young fly-half Louis Johnson his first Premiership start and he is one of seven changes from last Friday's 40-22 defeat at Sale.

Argentina trio Eduardo Bello, Pedro Rubiolo and Matias Moroni come into the side, while wing Adam Radwan and hooker Jamie Blamire both return from injury and Tom Penny is restored at full-back.

Codling's opposite number Baxter has named an unchanged starting XV from his team's 25-24 win over Bristol.

There is a reshuffle on the bench, though, with hooker Max Norey, veteran prop Alec Hepburn and three-quarter Tom Hendrickson receiving call-ups.

Match Odds 

Despite winning this fixture last season, Newcastle are the obvious 5/2 underdogs. The Chiefs are 4/11 to get that elusive first away victory of the campaign, while the tie, as was the case in their October 2018 Premiership Rugby Cup meeting, is 20/1.

The last five league meetings at Kingston Park have been decided by 10 or fewer points and Exeter are 7/4 to win by one to 12 points inclusive, with Newcastle 10/3 by the same metric.

Exeter -8 @ 10/11

Exeter began the weekend as the competition's top point scorers and have been irresistible at times this season.

The Kingston Park conditions, with cold temperatures and overcast skies forecast, may not be so easy to deal with, while the venue's artificial surface has caused plenty of headaches over the years.

Newcastle pushed Gloucester (18-14) and Northampton (16-14) but were then smashed 50-12 by Saracens' second string and the Chiefs offer a similar threat.

The Falcons have conceded more points than anybody else and scored significantly fewer. By contrast, Exeter's fine attacking play is complemented by the best defence in the league and they can demonstrate the pair's clear gulf in class.

Over 49.5 points @ EVS

Similarly, barring the defeat to Sarries, Newcastle have been a bit more defensively sound but Codling's decision to put his faith in youth may leave them exposed.

Although the last four meetings between these sides have featured under 50 points, the Falcons' last three games have all seen over that mark.

Exeter's recent games have also seen them flirting with that tally and over 49.5 looks something to look out for.

Check out our other Rugby Union tips.