New Zealand vs Fiji Predictions: Fiji to stay in the hunt in San Diego

| Friday 19th July 2024, 14:30pm

Friday 19th July 2024, 14:30pm

New Zealand and Fiji have travelled to the west coast of America for an Exhibition Test Match in the Californian sun on Saturday (03:30 BST, Sky Sports Main Event). The All Blacks are coming off the back of a hard-fought Test Series against the English, whilst the Fijians got their Summer off to a winning start against Georgia.

New Zealand vs Fiji Betting Tips

Fiji +25 @ 5/6

New Zealand vs Fiji Odds

Scott Robertson is widely regarded to have been awarded a ‘pass mark’ for his first two matches in charge so far. His side found a way to beat a resilient English side, however the All Blacks certainly didn’t set the world alight. A lot of that credit needs to go to the English defence, who’s rush defence shut down the New Zealand attack time and again. This weekend however, the Fijians won’t defend in the same manor, which should enable McKenzie with some more time on the ball. There are a number of changes for the All Blacks, who have one-eye on the future generation, so that could impact their cohesion.

Mick Byrne has done a superb job with the Fijian Drua in Super Rugby over the last few years and fully deserves his recent promotion to the Flying Fijians job. He has implemented a structure and gameplan that has meant the Drua are competitive up-front which is something Fijian sides have lacked in the past. Additionally, regular game-time together has meant these players have built cohesion and provides the team with a foundation, and then Byrne can sprinkle the European-based players on top as opposed from starting from scratch at the beginning of the Test season.

Rugby Union Odds

The Kiwi’s have had the better of the H2H’s in this fixture but the Fijians have progressed significantly since their last fixture back in 2021. On a fast track in San Diego, I’m expecting a high scoring fixture but I believe the All Blacks won’t run away with it, with Fijians staying competitive

Team News

New Zealand

Scott Robertson has opted to give his wider squad an opportunity in this Exhibition fixture, with six players set to make their All Black debut. It’s a new front-row combination of Williams, Aumua and Newell and they’ll be looking to replicate the scrum dominance the Kiwi’s had against the English over the last few weeks. Scott Barrett has been asked to lace up his boots again and with Tuipolotu absent, it’s Vaa’i that will partner him in the second-row. Savea is retained at no.8 but there are changes on the flanks with Jacobson and Blackadder given opportunities this week.

Ratima earned his debut off the bench last week but will get his first start tomorrow. He’ll partner his Chiefs club mate McKenzie who will be at Fly-half again this week. It’s a new-look midfield as well with Lienert-Brown and Proctor named in the centres - the latter is on debut after an impressive season with the Hurricanes. Reece will remain on the wing but Telea is given a rest, meaning a chance to impress for Clarke on the other wing. Finally, Beauden Barrett is rewarded with a start after an eye-catching performance from the bench.

Fiji

Flying Fijians coach Mick Byrne has named a strong side for this clash in San Diego, which includes a strong Drua contingent with 12 players from the Super Rugby side. Mawi, Ikanivere and Doge will make up the front-row with Mayanavanua and Nasilasila in the second-row. The back-row is full of power with Tagitagivalu and Salawa on the flanks and new Bristol signing Mata at no.8.

It’s a Drua partnership in the half-backs, with Lomani and youngster Armstrong-Ravula combining at 9 and 10. The midfield pairing will be Racing 92’s Tabuavou and Nayacalevu who will join Sale after the Summer Internationals. The latter had an excellent World Cup and will be keen to emulate that form in this International window too. As expected there is firepower out on the wing with Radradra and Wainiqolo, whilst Botitu will marshal the game from full-back.

Bet Reasoning

Playing on a hard surface on a hot evening in San Diego means this game will be played at a very fast pace. This is a big difference to what the All Blacks have been having to play recently and although the game-speed may suit them more, I have to question how quickly they can transition to that gameplan with so many new faces involved. The Fijians will put a lot of pressure on the All Blacks in the loose and they have the star-quality out wide to hurt the All Blacks and stay in the fight. This game could well go 70+ points but I don’t see the Fijians being blown away here.