New Zealand vs Argentina Predictions: All Blacks to overcome Pumas

The All Blacks will kick off their Rugby Championship Title defence against a travelling Argentina side, who are under the new management of Felipe Contepomi.

As always we've asked our Rugby expert Alex Cox to give us his New Zealand vs Argentina Prediction and here is his full write-up.

The All Blacks are also adjusting to a new coaching group led by Scott Robertson who will be looking to secure a 4th consecutive win to begin his tenure. Despite not demonstrating the dominance of prior All Black sides, Robertson will have been delighted to secure two narrow victories against England before a more comfortable performance against Fiji in San Diego.

The Argentinians have had slightly varied opponents during their Summer Internationals. The drew a two match Series against France – who were essentially sent a ‘B’ squad to South America – before putting 79 points on an uninterested Uruguay side. Their squad is looking fairly strong on paper but this All Black Test match in Wellington is a significant step-up from their recent games.

Although there is concern around the New Zealand line-out, by contrast their scrum has been extremely solid and become an area of strength. In open play though, is where the All Blacks will be able to inflict some damage on the Pumas. Whilst Felix Jones’ rush defence meant England disrupted the Kiwi attacking ball, I don’t believe the Pumas will have the same joy, meaning strike runners in the wide channels will be able to hurt the Argentinians. When you also consider the danger men coming off the bench, I can see the All Blacks pulling clear of this handicap in the final quarter.
The Aussies are still at the beginning of Schmidt’s redevelopment project but have kicked off his tenure with three wins from their Summer Internationals against the Welsh and the Georgians. There were promising signs within each of those three Test matches, however there are also still a number of questions marks as to what level this Aussie side are at currently. The South African’s are a few steps up in quality vs the 11^th and 12^th ranked sides that toured Australia last month so this Test match will reveal how far Schmidt’s side has come so far.

The Boks will likely be fairly disappointed with their Summer fixtures as losing to Ireland in Pretoria was not something on the script. Following that, they had a chance to give their wider squad a run against an energetic Portugese side, however the result of that Test match was never in doubt. They’ve now travelled to Brisbane which historically has been a challenging place to play, having won only three times in 16 visits. However Kolisi and his side will be looking to bounce back from the disappointing Ireland result and kickstart their Rugby Championship with a convincing performance.

The Wallabies looked better with ball-in-hand over the Summer however they were defensively exposed by far weaker sides and I’m expecting more of the same in Brisbane, meaning there should be points on show.

Team News: 

New Zealand

 
Unfortunately the All Blacks will be without usual skipper Scott Barrett who will be out for a few weeks with an injury, but otherwise Scott Robertson has been able to pick a very strong side. The front-row will be De Groot, Taylor and Lomax, which is a retained trio from the England series. Vaa’i and Darry will be in the second-row and will try to manage the line-out in the absence of their usual talisman. Blackadder gets the nod over Finau and he’ll join Papali’i on the flank, with stand-in Skipper Ardie Savea at no.8.

TJ Perenara is fit again meaning he will start at Scrum Half, with Ratima on the bench for the second half. No change at fly-half with Damian McKenzie retained once again. Jordie Barrett remains in the midfield but Rieko Ioane won’t be partnering him from the outset this week, with Lienert-Brown promoted to start this week instead. Tele’a and Reece will be on the wings once again and will be looking to build off the strong performances they’ve already produced this Summer. No Perofeta this week, meaning that Beauden Barrett will start at full-back. Look out for Will Jordan off the bench after finally returning from injury – he’ll be a huge threat in the final stages.

Argentina

Just like the Kiwi’s, the Pumas will be without their usual skipper this week, with Julien Montoya not able to play, meaning the armband is passed to the industrious Matera instead. The front-row will be Gallo, Ruiz and Bello, with Molina and Rubiola in the second-row. The Argentinian back-row is especially strong, consisting of Matera and Kremer on the flanks and the talented Juan Martin Gonzalez. The latter hasn’t featured for the Argentinians yet this Summer but has previously shown his ability to All Black fans after producing a superb performance during the famous Argentinian victory in Christchurch in 2022.

The half-back pairing will be Bertranou and Santiago Carreras meaning Albornoz will need to wait to make an impact from the bench this week. The midfield partnership will be the powerful Chocobare and Cinti, with Mateo Carreras and Moroni on the wings and Juan Cruz Mallia at full-back. Moroni has made only a handful of starts on the wing and is traditionally a center so this looks like a tactical decision by Contepomi to try to contain the dangerous Tele’a, as Moroni is a strong defender.New Zealand

Unfortunately the All Blacks will be without usual skipper Scott Barrett who will be out for a few weeks with an injury, but otherwise Scott Robertson has been able to pick a very strong side. The front-row will be De Groot, Taylor and Lomax, which is a retained trio from the England series. Vaa’i and Darry will be in the second-row and will try to manage the line-out in the absence of their usual talisman. Blackadder gets the nod over Finau and he’ll join Papali’i on the flank, with stand-in Skipper Ardie Savea at no.8.

TJ Perenara is fit again meaning he will start at Scrum Half, with Ratima on the bench for the second half. No change at fly-half with Damian McKenzie retained once again. Jordie Barrett remains in the midfield but Rieko Ioane won’t be partnering him from the outset this week, with Lienert-Brown promoted to start this week instead. Tele’a and Reece will be on the wings once again and will be looking to build off the strong performances they’ve already produced this Summer. No Perofeta this week, meaning that Beauden Barrett will start at full-back. Look out for Will Jordan off the bench after finally returning from injury – he’ll be a huge threat in the final stages.

New Zealand vs Argentina Odds

New Zealand -17.5 @ 5/6

Despite Argentina getting that win in 2022, the All Blacks have bounced back to cover this handicap in the last 3 H2H’s against the Pumas, with an average margin of 38 in those 3 games. The last fixture was at the World Cup, which New Zealand won 44-6. Although Scott Barrett is a big loss, there is an abundance of power and talent in this side and after now being together as a squad for almost 2 months, Razor’s influence will become more evident with each game they play. I believe this could be a fairly tight first half, but the All Blacks will pull clear and win by 20+.

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