Moana Pasifika vs Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs look for statement win

You have to go back to 2013 for the last time the Waikato Chiefs won the Super Rugby title, but they have threatened in recent seasons and look to be on track to contend again. 

Clayton McMillan’s men have won seven of their opening 10 games and remain in New Zealand’s North Island this Friday (08:05 BST) to face Moana Pasifika. The Chiefs racked up a big win in this fixture last season and they look ready to claim a third victory in a row. 

Team News 

Following their home defeat to the Highlanders last week, Tana Umaga has changed all but two of his starting XV. Lock Allan Craig and number eight Lotu Inisi have kept their place in the side, while hooker Sama Malolo will captain Moano Pasifika. 

Miracle Fai’ilagi starts at blindside flanker for the hosts, while Aisea Halo will begin the game at halfback. There has been disappointing news on the injury front for the Chiefs ahead of their short trip to Auckland. 

Utility back Damian McKenzie will miss the match after suffering concussion, while loose forward Samipeni Finau and outside back Shaun Stevenson also miss out through injury. Lock Josh Ward will miss the rest of the competition due to a knee injury, but centre Gideon Wrampling is back in the squad. 

Match Odds 

The Chiefs are big favourites to win this fixture, with McMillian’s squad as short as 1/100 to win Friday’s match. 

Moana Pasifika are 16/1 to pull off a surprise, with the draw available to back at 33/1. 

The visitors are 1/8 to be in front at half-time, while Umaga’s home side is 11/2 to be leading at the break. 

Chiefs -27.5 Handicap @ 5/6 

The visitors head to Auckland currently sat fourth in the standings after winning three of their last four Super Rugby fixtures. Last season’s beaten finalists scored nine tries in last week’s crushing 56-7 victory over Western Force in Hamilton. 

They also racked up the points when they face Moana Pasifika in the reverse fixture, running in 10 tries and eventually winning 68-12 last month. Daniel Rona crossed the whitewash in that victory in early April and the centre scored three times in the success over the Force. 

Total Points - Under 63.5 @ 10/11 

The three defeats this season for the Chiefs have all come on the road, falling to losses at the Reds, Crusaders and Hurricanes. 

The points tally at home and away in Super Rugby are also worth noting, with the Chiefs averaging 46.16 points per game on home soil compared to 26.5 on the road. 

Moana Pasifika have had five home matches this season, with 11 points or less separating the two sides in four of those five games. 

Check out our other Rugby Union Betting Tips here.