Melbourne Rebels vs Reds Prediction: More points in Melbourne

Les Kiss’s attacking focus will be on show again this week, as his Reds side travel back down to Melbourne in search of their 3^rd win of the season.  Our Rugby expert Alex Cox is back with another preview of Rebels vs Reds on Friday morning (08:30) and his prediction of how it might go down.

Despite the off-field uncertainty surrounding the Rebels this year - in which the side are now suing Rugby Australia – they seem to have re-grouped, and recently defeated both the Force and Moana Pasifika. Carter Gordon has played a big part in these games, marshalling the side around the park with competence well beyond his years. He will be crucial again this week with the Queenslanders in town.

The Reds have had a strong start of the season, epitomized by the exceptional performance to beat the Chiefs in Brisbane last week. Les Kiss has clearly made a big impression already, with his new Reds side oozing confidence in attack. Many of the playing group were overlooked by Eddie Jones for the World Cup, but they are certainly trying to make an impression in front of Schmidt. A prime example is Harry Wilson, who is arguably in the form of his life after some barn-storming performances and is currently 3^rd in the Competition for both Total Carries (36) and Offloads (6). He has linked up with McDermott perfectly and it has laid the foundations for a multi-dimensional Reds attack, which sides are struggling to stop.

Team news

Rebels

The Rebels have named a strong side this week. Up front will be Gibbon, Uelese and Tupou – the latter facing his previous club. Canham and Salakaia-Loto continue their partnership at Lock, with Kemeny, Ekuasi and Leota linking up in the back-row. Ekuasi is usually a no.8 so Rebels were clearly keen to get an extra ball carrier into their pack this week.

Louwrens and Gordon have the 9 and 10 shirts again this week. There is no doubts over the prospects of Gordon in open-play but his goal kicking continues to raise doubts. Feliaui and Daugunu will be in the midfield this week, with Vaihu shuffled out to the left-wing. Ex 7’s International Anderson will be on the other wing, with Wallaby Kellaway at Full-back.

Reds

Les Kiss has made a few changes to the side that ran out against the Chiefs last week. Ravai, Faessler and Noggorr will be in the front-row, with Fa’agase’s suspension ruling him out. Uru and Smith are in the second-row and the consistent back-row of Wright, McReight and Wilson continuing this week.

McDermott has started off the season in fine form and keeps his place at 9 this week. However we’ll have a new partner at 10, with Lynagh on the bench and youngster McLaughlin-Phillips named for his first start. Henry and Flook continue in the Centers, with Grealy, Vunivalu and Campbell in the back-three. There is a notable returnee on the bench, with Petaia ready to make a return after a recent concussion.

Over 57.5 points @ 5/6

The last 3 of these fixtures in Melbourne have been high scoring (averaging 68 points) and I think we’ll see another end-to-end game on Friday too. The pitch and conditions in Melbourne are perfectly suited to running rugby, and it’s no surprise that all 6 matches in the Melbourne Super Round a few weeks ago went over 60 points.

Both sides’ attacks have been confidently scoring points in the first 3 rounds, choosing to go for tries as opposed to taking penalties when on offer. I do see the Reds edging this game in the final quarter but I think the Rebels will contribute points to the scoreboard along the way.

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