Japan vs Wales Prediction: Conditions should mean high scores

Eddie Jones is hoping a lack of experience could be a 'blessing' as he prepares his Japan side for the opening Test against Wales in southwestern Kitakyushu on Saturday (06:00 BST, BBC One Wales/BBC iPlayer).

The Welsh, meanwhile, will hope to end an unwanted record – 17 straight Test match losses - as interim head coach Matt Sherratt bids to bring back some confidence. Read on for my Japan vs Wales predictions, complete with the latest odds and team news, ahead of this contest at the Mikuni World Stadium.

Team News

Veteran loose forward Michael Leitch captains the Japan team for his 88th cap, with regulars Warner Dearns, Dylan Riley and Seungsin Lee also in the starting line-up.

Former England and Australia boss Jones selected two uncapped players to start against the Welsh, with another six on the bench. Among the new caps will be the diminutive wing Kippei Ishida, who Jones believes 'can be a Japanese version' of South Africa livewire Cheslin Kolbe.

Rugby Union Odds

Flanker Josh Macleod returns for his first Wales appearance this year in the back row alongside Alex Mann and Taulupe Faletau.

Out-half Sam Costelow and lock Ben Carter also return to the starting line-up after missing the Six Nations through injury. Kieran Hardy starts at scrumhalf, while Centre Johnny Williams returns for his first Wales appearance since the 2023 World Cup. Hooker Dewi Lake captains Wales.

Japan vs Wales Odds

Japan are outsiders at 16/5, even though Wales, priced at 1/4, are on that record-breaking run of losses. The draw is priced at 25/1.

The three-way handicap is set at 10 points, with Japan 1/1 and Wales available at 20/21, while the handicap tie is 22/1.

Total points over 59.5 @ 20/21

Wales are 1/4 to win this clash, but taking such a short price about a side on a long losing streak doesn't appeal.

Jac Morgan and Tomos Williams were the only Welsh players who made the Lions Tour, a reflection of the poor state of the game for the Dragons currently.

Losing 17 straight Tests is a very unwanted record for a tier-one country in the professional era, and Welsh minds won't want to comprehend that streak continuing.

Japan were well beaten by the Maori All Blacks, going down 53-20. The Cherry Blossoms have lost their last five Tests against tier-one sides by at least 28 points.

This contest is set to take place in searing heat and humidity, with temperatures potentially north of 30 degrees.

Conditions will be tough for both sets of players. There could be plenty of handling errors, but also a large amount of line breaks, as players may struggle to operate at their maximum work rate.

Rather than getting involved in backing a Welsh side low on confidence, the best bet here is to side with the scoreboard operator keeping busy.

Find more Rugby Union Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights