Harlequins vs Bath Prediction: Attacks to overcome defences

This clash at The Stoop in Twickenham on Saturday afternoon has the potential to be a lively affair. Both teams have attacking rugby deep-rooted in their DNA and it looks as if the weather forecast has played ball to tee this up perfectly.

Harlequins produced one of the worst performances I’ve seen from them for many a year, last week. They were bullied up-front, lost the majority of the collisions and exposed out wide – the full house. They were chasing shadows around a pristine Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for the best part of an hour and a half. At home this weekend, you have to expect a reaction from Quins and I expect them to come out of the blocks quickly and play with far more intensity than we witnessed last week.

Bath produced a classy final quarter last week to dispatch a plucky Sale side. They managed the game perfectly, with Finn Russell even squeezing over his first ever drop goal to keep the scoreboard ticking. The squad depth is evident and no one can argue that they will be dangerous in the playoffs if they can cement a top four spot.

Predictions:

• Points line Over 54.5 @ 8/11
• Double Result : Quins HT / Bath FT @ 15/2

Team News: 

Harlequins

There are only a few changes to Harlequins starting side this week – mainly in the pack. That’s partly due to a number of injuries building up, including Kenningham, Lamb, Porter, Joseph, Cunningham-South and David. It does mean the bench looks a little light though.

The front-row is reshuffled with Baxter and Lewis starting as props, with Walker continuing at Hooker. Launchbury and Hammond remain in the second-row and the back-row this week will be Lewies, Evans and Dombrandt.

The back-line will be managed as usual by Care and Smith, with the giant Esterhuizen and youngster Beard in the midfield. Murley and Lynagh will continue on the wings with Green at full-back.

Bath

Van Graan makes 5 changes to the starting side this week. Obano, Dunn and du Toit from the front-row with Ewels and du Plessis in behind them. The 6 foot 8 South African has been plagued with injury and will finally make his long-awaited debut for Bath. Reid, Hill and Coetzee will be in the back-row – the latter making a significant impact off the bench last week.

Spencer and Russell will continue as half-backs, despite the rumours that Finn would be rested this week. Redpath does a get rest though, meaning Ojomah comes into partner Lawrence in the midfield. Muir, McConnochie and Gallager make up the back-three, with Cokansiga also given a week off.

Bet reasoning

I think attacks will outperform defences in this one and there is value in the over 54.5 line, which should be a few points higher in my opinion. I also think there is value in the big priced double result, with Bath’s game management and strong bench overcoming Quins’ more inexperienced bench in the second half to see out the game.