Exeter Chiefs vs Harlequins Prediction: The points trend continues

 | Saturday 11th May 2024, 9:38am

Saturday 11th May 2024, 9:38am

Alex Cox Rugby Union

Exeter and Quins face off down in the West-Country on Saturday (TNT Sports 2, 17:30) and with a play-off spot on the line, both teams will chuck the kitchen sink at each other.

This game on Saturday afternoon pits two playoff challengers against each other. Exeter sit in seventh and Harlequins are in sixth with a four-point cushion before kick off. A loss for Exeter will all but end their play-off dreams, but a win will give them a chance going into the final weekend, and the same can be said for Harlequins.

Exeter Chiefs vs Harlequins Betting Tip

  • Over 56.5 points @ 5/6

Exeter will feel they have a missed a few opportunities this year, but with two games to go, they still have a chance to progress. Last game out we saw a ruthless Exeter performance away at a distracted Gloucester side, winning 38-17 at Kingsholm. Back at home this week, they will be keen to employ their power game plan and look to convert opportunities that the Harlequins defense will certainly give them.

Harlequins put in a huge shift against Toulouse last week but unfortunately came up just short. This week will be a test of their physical and mental state after such an energy-sapping trip to the south of France. However this side have been through similar scenarios of back-to-back knockout rugby in recent years and they’ll be able to call upon that experience today.

Harlequins also manage their players workload carefully during periods like this, and often only do light training to ensure players recover in time. Considering these factors, I don’t see any reason why the trend of high scoring affairs would end.

Exeter Chiefs vs Harlequins Odds

Exeter are 4/5 to take the victory, while Harlequins are 11/10 to win this contest. The draw can be backed at 22/1.

Team News 


With a week’s rest under their belt, Rob Baxter has been able to field an unchanged starting side. Up front will be Sio (after signing a new contract this week), Yeandle and Street. Dunne and Jenkins are the second-row duo, with a powerful combination of Roots, Vermeulen and Fisilau in the back-row. The Exeter pack were dominant against Gloucester in their recent away win and they’ll be looking to replicate that against Quins this week.

The back-line has been fairly consistent all season, with Cairns and Skinner constant half-back pillars. Slade and Hawkins are the midfield operators and the back-three of Woodburn, Feyi-Waboso and John are all in fine form. Harlequins defense is known to give up opportunities, and if they give players like Feyi-Waboso time and space they will be punished.


After last week’s European disappointment, Quins make four changes to their starting side. Up front will be Marler, Walker and Collier – with Fin Baxter dropping to the bench. Herbst and Lewies are retained in the second-row and in the back-row will be Cunningham-South, Chisholm and Dombrandt. Evans drops to bench and he’s joined by Kenningham, who returns after seven months of injury rehab.

Porter gets a well-earned start this weekend, with Smith retained as fly-half. Esterhuizen picked up an injury last week so he has a rest, meaning Northmore shifts to inside center and Beard comes into outside center. No changes to the dynamite back-three of Murley, Lynagh and Green – with the latter in especially exceptional form currently.

Bet reasoning

Since Club rugby returned after the Six Nations, Harlequins have played seven matches and six of those have covered today’s points total, with an average of 67 points in those games. Their attack is often extremely difficult to stop, but they frequently switch off and allow teams to score. Although Exeter haven’t been involved with as many high scoring contests, Harlequins’ style mean an open game will be forced upon them, and there’s every chance that both teams score above 30 points today.

Over 56.5 points at 5/6 Find more Rugby Union Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights

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