Exeter vs Bath Prediction: Wrong favourites in the West Country Last 16 tie

A fierce West-Country battle awaits Rugby Union fans on Saturday afternoon but our betting expert Alex Cox feels that it’s hard to overlook Exeter’s home field advantage in a knockout fixture.

This European Champions Round of 16 match will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 2 from 15:00 and is part of a bumper weekend of games from Europe's premier club competition. Alex previews the action and gives us his Exeter Chiefs vs Bath Prediction...

On Saturday afternoon at Sandy Park, Exeter and Bath will face off in an all-English last 16 knockout round match, with a Quarter-Final spot up for grabs. Both of these sides have some experience in the latter rounds of Europe's most prestigious competition, although their successes were separated by a few decades.

In 1998 Bath became the first English side to win the European Cup and although the Bath fans have had a few tough years, their Club is back amongst the top-table of European Rugby again. Exeter fans only have to cast their minds back to 2020, when they defeated Racing 92 and lifted the trophy.

Exeter have had a turbulent season to date, with a clear disparity between their away form vs their home form. Their troubles on the road are evident, as shown by their meak performance on their trip to Sale last week, losing 41-5.

At home though, they have been won 10 out of 11 in all competitions, with the narrow loss to the Saints being the only black mark on their report card. They seem to find two extra gears when at home down in the West Country, and they’ll be hoping for more of the same in this crucial tie.

Bath have had a great start to their season but the ambitious signings of Russell, Barbeary and co will be in vain unless they can perform when it matters towards the end of the season. They looked lost last week for 50 minutes vs Harlequins but managed five tries in half an hour to bring the game out of the abyss. Although they couldn’t get over the line, they’ll certainly take confidence from their last quarter performance.

I can’t ignore Exeter’s home form here, and think the Sandy Park faithful will play a big part in seeing Exeter through the tie.

Prediction: Exeter +2 @ 10/11

Team News: 

Exeter

The Exeter front-row will consist of Sio, Yeandle and Painter. Tuima was rested last week but is reinstated this week to partner Jenkins. An all-international back-row in Roots, Tshiunza and Vincent will be looking to give Exeter an edge on the gain line.

The half-back pairing is a familiar one, with Cairns and Skinner linking up again. Devoto returns to the squad and he will partner Slade in the midfield. There are no changes to the back-three from last weekend’s game, with Woodburn and Feyi-Waboso occupying the wings and youngster Hodge at full-back.

Bath

Van Grann makes 5 changes to his side this week, although he chooses the same front-row once again, with Obano, Dunn and du Toit. Roux and Ewels will be the Locks in behind them, with Hill, Underhill and Barbeary partnering up to provide an imposing all-English back-row.

Spencer and Russell remain as half-back’s, with Redpath returning to the side at 12 and Lawrence outside him. They will need their midfield duo in fine form to get them on the front foot. Muir continues on the left-wing and Cokanasiga slots back onto the right-wing after a week off. Gallagher will be at full-back in replacement of the sidelined de Glanville, after he fractured his foot a few weeks ago.

Bet reasoning

Although Bath have edged the recent H2H’s contests which have been played at the Rec, you have to go back to 2016 for the last time Bath won at Sandy Park, meaning I think there is value on Exeter’s underdog plus handicap. I believe Exeter’s more recent experience in knockout European rugby will stand them in good stead when this game reaches it’s final conclusions and give them the edge required to get them into the next round.

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