Toulouse vs Sale Prediction: Understrength Sharks set for tough trip

The equation is simple for Toulouse heading into their final pool match in this season's European Rugby Champions Cup as they must beat Sale Sharks if they are to stand any chance of securing a top-two finish and a home tie in the round of 16. The record six-time European champions, who currently sit fourth in Pool 1, would also require Saracens to lose at Glasgow Warriors to pinch second spot, while failure to win could see them miss out on the knockout stages altogether.

Sale's place in the round of 16 is already guaranteed, but they are still battling for a top-two finish and could even win the pool, which makes it surprising that they have named a much-changed team for Saturday's trip to the Stade Ernest-Wallon (17:30 GMT, Premier Sports 2). Below are my Toulouse vs Sale predictions...

Team News

Toulouse will once again have to do without France international fly-half Romain Ntamack, who misses his third successive match due to a lower-back issue.

Blair Kinghorn will deputise for Ntamack, just as he did in last weekend's 20-14 loss at Saracens.

Alex Sanderson has made nine changes to his starting XV for Sale, perhaps with one eye on next week's Gallagher Prem clash with Northampton Saints, including handing debuts to academy graduates Ollie Davies and Jos Gilmore.

Fellow rookies Patrick Hogg and Reuben Logan - the latter the son of former Scotland star Kenny Logan - have been named amongst the replacements, and Marius Louw will captain what is an unfamiliar-looking team for the first time.

Toulouse vs Sale Odds

Toulouse are the overwhelming favourites at 1/100 to win this match, while Sanderson's youthful-looking Sale side are 22/1 outsiders with the draw priced at 80/1.

In the three-way handicap market, Toulouse are 5/6 to come through when handing their opponents a 39-point head start, while Sale are 10/11 to prevail with that advantage.

Toulouse -43 handicap @ 13/10

Sale appear happy with their lot with a place in the knockout stages already assured, as it looks like Sanderson & Co. are prioritising domestic matters rather than going all out for a win that could even secure first place in the pool.

That could prove a shrewd move given a trip to the Stade Ernest-Wallon would be a daunting prospect for even a full-strength Sharks line-up, with Toulouse having won all eight of their matches on home soil this season.

Le Stade are not only winning games on their own patch, but they are doing so with plenty of swagger, running in 48 or more points in six of their last seven home fixtures, including putting 60 past La Rochelle in the Top 14 and 56 on Sharks in this competition.

The win against La Rochelle just after Christmas was also the third time this season Ugo Mola has seen his side win at the Ernest-Wallon by more than 40 points, something they can achieve again against this youthful Sale line-up.

Sale have lost all five of their away games in the Gallagher Prem this season, and although they did record a European success on the road at Clermont, Toulouse will prove a giant step up when compared to their Top 14 rivals, who have yet to pick up a point in the Champions Cup this season.

Click the link for all the latest Rugby Union Odds