Saracens vs Toulouse Prediction: Take Toulouse to have too much at the StoneX

Saracens and Toulouse have won a combined nine Champions Cup titles between them and meet in round three on Sunday (17:30 GMT, Premier Sports 1) at StoneX Stadium.

Below are my Saracens vs Toulouse predictions, alongside team news and match odds.

Both are on six points after a win and a defeat each in Pool 1, but the match at the StoneX could be make-or-break as they aim to qualify in the top two from the group, thereby guaranteeing a home match in the round of 16.

Both teams rested players last weekend, with Sarries going down 36-28 at Leicester and Toulouse 30-27 at Perpignan.

Home boss Mark McCall discussed on Thursday how his team's 28-17 win in the south of France in 2016 led to several meetings between the two clubs to share ideas.

A conclusion from those collusions was Stade's decision to put their faith in the young players who have since become some of the best in the world.

Antoine Dupont and Thomas Ramos were among that cohort and can help Toulouse recover from their difficult evening on the 4G in their 28-21 loss at Glasgow in December by showing Sarries what it takes to get back on top.

Saracens vs Toulouse Odds

Saracens are 3/1 to win at home, with the draw 25/1 and Toulouse the 1/4 favourites.

The hosts won both meetings in 2015-16, but much has changed since then, and they are 10/11 at +11 on the three-way handicap.

Team News

Saracens have made seven changes from their defeat at Leicester, with prop Eroni Mawi coming in for his 100th appearance in the club's colours.

Maro Itoje is also back to take the captaincy, and Fergus Burke is again favoured ahead of Owen Farrell at fly-half.

Farrell is part of a classy bench also featuring Ben Earl and Max Malins.

Toulouse have made wholesale changes from last Saturday's loss at Perpignan, but remain without fly-half Romain Ntamack.

Blair Kinghorn will wear the number 10 shirt but may rotate the first receiver role with full-back Ramos, and Dupont captains the team from scrum-half.

Stade have opted for a six-two split among their replacements, which includes hooker Peato Mauvaka, who returns to European rugby for the first time since damaging his knee eight months ago.

It is also worth looking out for the back-row battle between the Willis brothers, Saracens' Tom and Toulouse's Jack.

Toulouse -14 @ 6/5

As well as reminiscing about the clubs' previous partnership, McCall revealed on Thursday that his squad had held clear-the-air talks following the "incredibly disappointing" defeat at Leicester.

Things aren't clicking for the three-time European champions, and they have lost two of their last three home games, going down to Bath and Exeter, either side of December's 47-10 win over Clermont.

Toulouse demonstrated their depth by reaching last season's semi-finals without a clutch of key stars, but Ntamack's absence aside, they are almost fully loaded for this trip to north London.

They lost 28-21 at Glasgow in December, squandering a 21-0 half-time lead as they struggled in the windy conditions at Scotstoun.

With temperatures rising, things could be more manageable for the record six-time winners, albeit they will again have to contend with another 4G pitch.

Saracens look to have loaded their bench to finish strongly, but it might be too late against the team that, on paper, is arguably still the top dog in Europe.

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