Leinster vs Toulon Prediction: Brex and co can push Leinster close

It has been eight years since Leinster last won the Champions Cup, but that isn't the whole story, as they have lost four finals since lifting the trophy most recently.

The four-time champions were also beaten by Northampton in last season's semi-finals and have reached that stage again, with a home last-four clash against Toulon scheduled for Saturday at 15:00.

Le Rouge et Noir won this tournament three times in a row between 2013 and 2015 and while they have been a regular feature in the latter stages of the Challenge Cup, this season's progress in the big one has come as a surprise.

It is therefore a free hit for Pierre Mignoni's side, and they have beaten Stormers and Glasgow in the knockout rounds as well as winning their last two Top 14 fixtures.

Can Leinster handle the pressure, or will Toulon take advantage of their issues, especially in the scrum and wide channels?

Team news

Tadhg Furlong limped off last week at Benetton and misses out, so Tom Clarkson starts at tighthead prop, but Andrew Porter has been passed fit to start at loosehead.

Hugo Keenan returns at full-back, and Rieko Ioane moves to the wing to allow Garry Ringrose and Robbie Henshaw to form a familiar centre partnership.

For Toulon, Ben White starts ahead of scrum-half rival Baptiste Serin, and in the forwards, Kyle Sinckler goes up against Porter in the front row.

Daniel Brennan, son of former Leinster lock Trevor, has been named among the Toulon reserves.

Leinster vs Toulon Odds

Leinster are 1/4 to win and reach the final in Bilbao on May 23, with Toulon 3/1 and the draw 25/1.

Toulon +10 @ 1/1

It has been a strange season for Leinster. So often, they have cruised through this tournament, only to fall short amid accusations that their dominance has left them undercooked for the big moments.

However, this term Leo Cullen's side have ground through games and also had some luck, with Toulon's quarter-final win over second seeds Glasgow Warriors flipping the draw so that the Irish side have a home semi-final in Dublin.

Leinster progressed to the last four by beating Edinburgh and Sale. But they picked a strong side who faltered in last weekend's surprise 29-26 defeat away at Benetton.

They need to improve when they face an in-form Toulon, whose win over the Warriors followed an epic one-point victory over Stormers.

Les Rouge et Noir have since beaten Montauban 47-22 and Bayonne 52-26, extending their winning run to four games.

Leinster should win this game, but given their shortcomings, Toulon look underrated on the handicap.

Juan Ignacio Brex to score a try @ 7/2

The most obvious areas where Leinster are struggling are in the scrum, with Furlong's form and fitness a real concern.

They also struggle on the fringes in defence. Ringrose has been in and out of the side all season through injuries, and Ioane has struggled to adapt to the system.

Toulon wing Gael Drean is among three players to have scored seven tries in this season's Champions Cup, but a man inside him offers greater value.

Juan Igancio Brex will line up opposite Ringrose in the centres and is in form after scoring the decisive try in Glasgow and also dotting down against Bayonne.

The Italian international is strong, skilful and smart and has the talent to expose any issues Leinster have in their outside channel.

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