Crusaders vs Reds Prediction: ‘Saders set to continue title push

A place in the Super Rugby semi-finals is at stake when the Crusaders host the Reds in Christchurch on Friday.

Read on for my Crusaders vs Reds predictions, as well as the latest team news and match odds.

The 12-time champions from Christchurch have recovered from missing out on the play-offs in 2024. It was always going to be a challenging year due to the departure of Scott Robertson and a host of stars after the previous year's Rugby World Cup, but they responded to finish second to the Chiefs in the regular season.

Opponents the Reds finished fifth for the second straight season and are seeking their second title after beating the 'Saders in the 2011 showpiece.

However, that is the only time the Queenslanders have beaten the Kiwis in four Finals meetings and with the Crusaders winning 13 of the last 14 meetings, it looks as if the hosts will be heading through to face either the Chiefs or the Blues in the semi-finals.

Team News

The returns of All Blacks' duo Will Jordan and captain David Havili boost the Crusaders' back-line.

They come back in behind the scrum, which will be anchored at tighthead prop by fellow returnee Fletcher Newell.

In all, Rob Penney's starting XV features 10 New Zealand internationals, while a familiar face will return to Christchurch, with former Crusaders' academy star Joe Brial starting at blindside flanker for the Reds.

Les Kiss, who will take over as Australia coach after this summer's British & Irish Lions Test series, has also named Wallabies captain Harry WIlson at number eight after a knock to his arm saw him withdrawn as a precaution during last Saturday's win over the Drua.

Meanwhile, wing Lachie Anderson has been selected to play his 50th Super Rugby game.

Crusaders vs Reds Odds

The 12-time winners are just 1/6 to continue their quest for a record-extending 13th crown, while the Reds are 9/2 for an upset. The tie is 22/1.

Crusaders -15 @ 6/5

The Crusaders won 43-19 when these two met in March and it isn't easy to envisage the Reds turning the tables.

Last week's 52-7 success over the Drua was a nice way for the Queenslanders to end the regular season but they lost to both the Brumbies and Hurricanes in their two previous games.

They aren't the only side to have struggled against the Crusaders over the decades but won in Christchurch in 2024.

However, there was a clear gulf when the pair met last time in March and they face a Crusaders side on a 16-game winning streak in Finals series, their last defeat coming to the Lions in 2016.

Between Robertson and Penney, they have also won 20 of their last 21 outings at Apollo Projects Stadium - their sole defeat being that reverse against the Reds.

With home advantage and Jordan and Havili fit, they should win with a couple of scores to spare.

Sevu Reece first tryscorer @ 15/2

Sevu Reece's eight tries in 2025 means he is now Super Rugby's record try scorer with 66 and is in flying form heading into Friday's match.

Reece has switched between the wing and centres this season but starts out wide on Friday and has a mighty record against the Reds, scoring six tries in the last five meetings, including four in the last three.

That run includes a brace in the Crusaders' win in round four and with the All Blacks' squad to face France named on June 23, he will see the Finals as a chance to earn a starting place under Scott Robertson.

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