Crusaders vs Blues Predictions: Injury absence can make semi-final close

We’ve reached the last four of this season’s Super Rugby competition and the first semi-final on Friday (08:15, live on Sky Sports Action) is an all-New Zealand affair.

Read on for my Crusaders vs Blues predictions, as well as the latest odds and team news for Friday’s big clash.

The last two Super Rugby champions will go head-to-head in Christchurch in what promises to be a fascinating clash.

Blues won the trophy last year but head into this clash as underdogs after finishing sixth in the regular season standings and 16 points behind their opponents, who were second.

Crusaders were back-to-back champions in 2022 and 2023 and seem intent on taking back their crown, while they have already beaten Blues twice this term.

This is a repeat of the 2022 final, when Crusaders ran out 21-7 winners, and enforced changes could lead to another tight affair on the South Island.

Crusaders vs Blues Odds

The hosts are strong favourites to reach the final, with Rob Penney’s men available at 2/5 to win Friday’s semi.

Blues, who have lost twice to Crusaders this season, can be backed at 9/4, with the draw priced at 20/1.

Team News

There has been a major setback for Crusaders, with prop Tamaiti Williams set to miss out due to a knee injury suffered in the win over Queensland Reds.

Williams will be replaced by George Bower, who joins Fletcher Newell and Codie Taylor in the front-row.

Otherwise the starting XV remains the same as the side that started the quarter-final, with Kershawl Sykes-Martin taking Bower’s position on the bench.

The Blues also make one change from their one-point win over the Chiefs, with Zarn Sullivan replacing Corey Evans at full-back.

All-Blacks star Beauden Barrett starts in the half-backs and second row Patrick Tuipulotu skippers the side.

Crusaders -6 @ 10/11

Three months ago, Crusaders were comfortable victors at Eden Park, running in seven tries in a 42-19 success.

Then in April, there was a much closer encounter when Crusaders were 25-22 victors after a second-half fightback from the Blues.

The absence of prop Williams is a setback for the home side, with the 24-year-old scoring a try in both of the regular season matchups.

Front-rower Bower has 22 caps for the All Blacks, so has the experience for a big game like this, but won’t offer the same threat as the man he replaces.

There were just three points between the sides in their previous encounter and this promises to be another tight and tense affair, but it is one the Crusaders should win and they can also, just about, cover the handicap.

Sevu Reece - Anytime Tryscorer @ 11/10

Nobody has scored more tries in Super Rugby than Sevu Reece, with the All Blacks centre crossing 66 times in the competition.

The former Waikato man has eight tries to his name in 2025, including the opener in last month’s narrow home win over Highlanders.

The New Zealand international missed the final in 2023, so he will be keen to play a big role in helping his team reach the showpiece event this year.

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