Bath vs Bristol Prediction: Hosts can gain play-off derby revenge

European Challenge Cup winners Bath face Bristol Bears on Friday night (19:45, live on TNT Sports 1), as they battle it out for a place in the English Premiership Final.

Read on for my Bath vs Bristol predictions, complete with the latest odds and team news.

Team News

Having made several changes for last week’s defeat at Saracens, Director of Rugby Johann van Graan has brought back a number of senior Bath players.

Scotland centre Cameron Redpath returns to the hosts’ starting line-up having recovered from an ankle injury.

Flanker Ted Hill is set to make his 50th appearance for Bath, while scrum half Ben Spencer will captain the side.

Rugby Union Odds

Bristol are boosted by the return to action of Ellis Genge, with the England man fit to return to the pack having missed last week’s win over Harlequins.

James Dun and Steven Luatua have also been recalled to the Bears’ starting XV, while coach Pat Lam has named an unchanged backline.

Bath vs Bristol Odds

With home advantage and having finished 14 points ahead of their rivals, Bath are 2/9 favourites to win this derby clash.

Bristol can be backed at 10/3 to cause an upset on Friday, whilst the draw after 80 minutes is available at 25/1.

Bath are 5/6 to win with a -12.5 handicap, while Bristol, with a +12.5 start, are available at 1/1.

Handicap - Bath -9 @ 8/13

It’s 10 home wins in a row in all competitions for Bath going into Friday’s showdown, a run that stretches back to December 6, 2024.

Two months prior to that Champions Cup loss to La Rochelle, Bristol went to the Rec and won 36-26 before beating their rivals 26-14 at the Principality Stadium in May.

The chance to reclaim local bragging rights, as well as a place in the final, could spur Bath on to revenge, and they will be buoyed by the Bears’ recent record on the road.

Pat Lam’s men have lost their last three away fixtures - against Sale, Northampton and Gloucester - and that will be a concern heading into such a big game.

Total Points - Between 41-50 @ 16/5

These two teams are the highest points scorers in the English Premiership, with Bath averaging 36.16 points per game during the regular season.

Bristol have scored an average of 35.27 points per game, but they also have the worst defensive record of the top seven in the league, conceding 580 points in 18 games.

Those figures do suggest there will be plenty of attacking action on Friday, with Bath racking up 37 or more points in their last six home matches.

Find more Rugby Union Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights