Australia vs South Africa Predictions: Boks to go back-to-back

The Wallabies learnt some hard truths in Brisbane and it won’t get much easier in Perth-fontein this weekend..

As always we've asked our Rugby expert Alex Cox to give us his Australia vs South Africa Prediction and here is his full write-up.

The second game of the Rugby Championship will see the Boks head west to Perth to face an Australian side on the ropes after Test One in Brisbane. That first game saw a Springbok side that were dominant in every aspect of the game, with the Aussies only managing one late consolation try to prevent them from being nilled. Rassie has made changes to his squad this week, but the Aussies will need to turn the tide quickly to avoid a repeat result.

Schmidt has had to go back to the drawing board to try to establish how the Wallabies can compete with the Boks after such a disparity in Brisbane. He has been able to recall a couple of key players in the hope of changing the momentum but he’ll need his side to be a lot more competitive to stand a chance in this Test. The Aussies did not have much ball, but when they did get through a few phases, they found it extremely difficult to break down the green defensive wall or even prevent disruption at the breakdown, leading to slow ball time and again.

The World Champion Springboks produced a statement performance last week, with a masterclass of forward dominance, attacking freedom and a sprinkling of innovation. Although the Wallabies barely offered must resistance last week, Rassie will expect the Aussies to be stronger this week however he clearly trusts his wider squad to reach a similar level. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu had a fine game last week, guiding his side around the park and found opportunities to give the weapons at his exposal the ball they needed to make a difference. He’ll be keen to back up that performance and stake a claim for the long-term Springbok fly-half.

With windy and wet conditions forecasted in Western Australia, points may be more challenging to obtain this week for both sides. However the pack dominance that the Boks secured last week will be a factor again this week and put them in the right areas to accumulate points. Equally I don’t foresee the required change in this Australian attack to be able to stay close to the Springboks. With the strength of the South African bench too, they should pull clear in the final quarter.

Team News: 

Australia

Schmidt has made 4 changes to his starting side for this game, mainly due injuries. One big plus for the Wallabies is Bell in the front-row, who will line-up alongside Nasser and Alaalatoa. Bell is arguably the best scrummager that the Aussies have so that will bolster their attempts at combating the Boks at the set-piece. Frost was injured last week meaning Blyth will start in the second-row alongside Salakaia-Loto. No change to the back-row, with Valentini, Tizzano and Wilson retained.

Nic White is recalled at scrum-half at the expense of Jake Gordon, who had a challenging afternoon in Brisbane. Lolesio remains at fly-half, with Paisami and Ikitau all retained in the midfield. Unfortunately Daugunu suffered a broken leg last week, meaning it’s the overseas player Koroibete that steps in to play on the left-wing. It will be Kellaway on the other wing and Wright at full-back. Keep an eye out for youngster Jorgensen to make an impact off the bench.

South Africa

Rassie has rolled the dice and chosen to give opportunities to wider squad players for this 2^nd test against the Aussies. However, despite making 10 changes to the starting side, he will still have 14 World Cup Winners in his matchday squad, highlighting the strength of depth the South African’s have at their disposal. He is also able to name an extremely strong bench that will certainly make a difference in the latter stages.The front-row will be Wessels, Grobbelaar and Bath prop du Toit, with Moerat and Nortje in the second-row. Pieter-Steph du Toit had a colossal game last week so retains his place on the flank and he’ll partner up with Van Staden. Erligh Louw is at no.8 again this week after impressing on his starting debut last week and he certainly is putting his hand up as a candidate for the longer term option at the back of the scrum.

There is a starting debut at Scrum-Half as well, with Morne van den Berg replacing Reinarch. He is an exciting option and will provide tempo and keep the Aussies on their toes around the ruck. The young prodigy that is Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu retains his fly-half spot but will instead have Am and Kriel outside of him in the midfield this week. Mapimpi returns on the wing this week and the magician that is Kolbe remains on the other wing. Finally it’s Fassi that is given the nod at full-back. He has been given a few opportunities at Test-Match level so far and has not been overly convincing. Given the weather forecast is predicting challenging conditions, I’m sure the Aussies will try to test him out under the high ball.

Australia vs South Africa Odds

Australia are priced at 4/1 outsiders to win this game, with South Africa the heavy favourites at 1/5. A draw can be backed at 25/1.

South Africa -11.5 Handicap @ 10/11

I am expecting to see a reaction from the Wallabies but I question the extent to how that will impact the result of this game. The Wallabies are still finding their feet under a new coach and experience a lesson in regards to the level they currently are vs where the South African’s are. They were outmuscled and outsmarted across the park and although it may not be as big of a points difference than the 26 last week, I believe the Boks will win this by 15+.

Check out our other Rugby Union Betting Tips here.