Argentina vs Australia Predictions: Pumas to punish naive Aussies

The Pumas got their Rugby Championship tournament off to a flying start with a shock win against the All Blacks in Wellington, however they were quickly humbled after an angered Kiwi side won 42-10 the following week in Auckland. Still, they will have left New Zealand with plenty of confidence to take back home. They will welcome Joe Schmidt’s developmental Wallaby side to Buenos Aires on Saturday evening (23:00).

As always, we've asked our Rugby expert Alex Cox to give us his Argentina vs Australia Prediction and he's done just that...

New Pumas coach Felipe Contepomi has named a settled side tasked to bounce back from their big margin loss to the All Blacks, and defeat a new-look Aussie side in front of a jubilant South-American home crowd. They have a strong pack with an industrious back-row and have developed their back-line into a dangerous unit in both counter-attack and open play.

As a result, Argentina are now firmly at the top-table of World Rugby and are rightly favourites in this clash. The question that will be answered is how will the Pumas handle that favourites tag, as they are often used to being the underdogs with nothing to lose.

The Wallabies – unsurprisingly – had a tough start to their Series with the Boks comfortably coming away with wins in both Sydney and Perth. They were out-muscled and out-thought by Rassie and co, so will certainly be looking to get back on track with an away win in Argentina this weekend.

Schmidt is still clearly trying to get his feet under the table in his new gig but on the evidence we’ve seen, the attacking patterns of play are still in a work in progress, and their defences is still questionable. Valentini is over-worked as a ball carrier as he is their only strong gain-line breaker, however it has become predictable and I have confidence the Pumas will be able to repel their attack – as long as they maintain disciplined.

Team News: 

Argentina

The Pumas have a very strong side out for their first home fixture the Rugby Championship series. The front-row will be Gallo, Montoya and Sclavi, with Molina and Rubiola in the second-row. That tight-five offer the Pumas a lot of go-forward both at set-piece and in open-play and they’ll be focused on imposing themselves on the travelling Wallabies. The Argentinian back-row is also strong, consisting of Matera and Kremer on the flanks and the excellent Juan Martin Gonzalez at no.8.

The half-back pairing will be Bertranou and Santiago Carreras once again, who seem to have the backing of Contepomi. The midfield partnership will be Chocobares and Cinti, with Mateo Carreras and Cordero on the wings and Juan Cruz Mallia at full-back. It’s a settled back-line with plenty of cohesion and will certainly cause the Aussies a problem or two out-wide.

Australia

Joe Schmidt has named a new captain this week in Harry Wilson, who has gone from not making Eddie Jones’ Australian World Cup squad, to captaining his country a year later. Unfortunately Slipper is not available meaning the front-row will be Bell, Faessler and Tupou and Salakaia-Loto will be partnered once again with Frost in the second-row. With McReight still sidelined with a broken thumb, Schmidt sticks with the back-row combination of Tizzano, Valentini and Wilson. The back-row especially will be in for a tough afternoon against the physical Pumas.

Gordon and Lolesio will be the starting half-back pairing, with McDermott and Donaldson waiting in the wings on the bench. An unfortunately injury to Paisami means Schmidt is forced into a midfield change, with Stewart coming in to replace him. They are very different playeys, with Paisami a hard-line running bulldozer that provides front-foot ball, whilst Stewart is a ball-playing distributor that lacks the size of Paisami, meaning Aussies will have to look elsewhere for ball-carrying option. Ikitau will remain at 13 and may take up some of that slack but I’m not convinced it’s sufficient. Finally, the back-three remains Koroibete, Kellaway and Wright.

Argentina vs Australia Odds

Argentina are priced at 2/5 favourites to win this game, with Australia outsiders at 21/10. A draw can be backed at 20/1.

Argentina -7 @ 10/11

The Argentinians have proved they can bounce back on numerous occasions and I think we’ll see a motivated and passionate performance back home in Buenos Aires. The Wallabies are still adjusting to new players in a number of positions and lack the cohesion of the Pumas and ultimately I think that will be the differentiator in this Test Match.

Although there is some bad weather forecasted, the Pumas pack will stand up and provide the platform to punish the Aussies.

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