Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights Prediction: Sharpe to rain on Luai’s opening-night parade

After a decade in the Penrith Panthers organisation, Jarome Luai begins his new life as a Wests Tigers player on Friday when the NRL Premiership’s three-time back-to-back wooden spoon outfit take on the Newcastle Knights at Campbelltown Stadium in Sydney (07:00 GMT, 18:00 local).

The Samoa international and New South Wales Origin star leads the Tigers as captain in what is being billed as the beginning of a real turnaround at Leichhardt. Here are my Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights predictions, as well as full team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights Odds

Amid all the revolution talk around the Tigers, it’s the Knights who are backed to pick up the two competition points on offer in round one.

The home side are 5/4 to win their opener for the first time since 2020, implying a 44.4% probability of a Wests success. The Knights, on the back of consecutive play-off runs, are available at 4/6 to get on the board at the first attempt, just as they did in five straight seasons between 2018 and 2022.

It’s 18/1 for the draw in 80 minutes, while the standard handicap market sits at a 2.5-point start for the Tigers. In that scenario, you can back the home side at 5/6 or the Knights at 10/11.

Team News

Luai is the big-name addition for the Tigers and, with regular skipper Apisai Koroisau suspended, it is the superstar half-back who will captain Wests on opening night.

Heath Mason is handed the full-back jersey due to Jahream Bula’s continued recovery from shoulder surgery, while Tristan Hope will make his NRL bow off the interchange bench.

Beyond Luai, there’s also a Tigers debut for another Panthers title-winner in Sunia Turuva, who has recently overcome the effects of appendix surgery. Royce Hunt, Terrell May, Jeral Skelton and Jack Bird are further debutants.

Rugby League Odds

The Knights’ big news is that youngster Fletcher Sharpe has earned himself a start at five-eighth after a fantastic two-try performance in the pre-season comp win against the Sydney Roosters. He will be alongside Jack Cogger in the halves, with Phoenix Crossland shifting to hooker and Jayden Brailey moving to the bench.

Former Wigan Warriors star Kai Pearce-Paul is in the back row alongside Tyson Frizell and Dylan Lucas, while James Schiller makes his debut in the number-two shirt after arriving from the Canberra Raiders.

Knights by 1-12 points @ 2/1

There’s a lot of talk around the Tigers at the moment, particularly in light of Luai’s arrival. But cultural shifts do not happen overnight, and the Wests club has a lot of losing to overcome after the last three years.

I’ve liked the way the Knights have played over the 2023 and 2024 campaigns, and I’m excited to see what Sharpe can do in ’25. While I don’t think things will necessarily click immediately for him and Cogger, the signs were good against the Roosters a fortnight ago.

The Tigers will improve massively over the course of the season, but I reckon Newcastle have the edge in round one. Were this 12 months ago, I’d be behind them in a much bigger way, and they have five straight successes in the bank in fixtures against Wests.

But I’m happy to back them to win by upto two scores at the 2/1 available with Betfred.

Double Result: Knights-Knights @ 5/4

If the Knights are going to win this one, I don’t think they will do the damage late on. Of their 12 victories in 2024, 10 came off the back of half-time leads, and their ability to come out of the blocks fast could again be key this season.

I believe they can lay an early platform again at Campbelltown on Friday, with enough of a lead developed at the break to see off any Tigers comeback.

And the 5/4 on offer at an implied 44.4% probability is very generous considering the 83.3% rate at which their wins came from early advantages last term. If you fancy Newcastle to win, then the likelihood of them turning a 40-minute edge into an 80-minute one weighs heavily in your favour.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.