Sharks vs Cowboys Predictions: Holmes to have a say again in high-scoring thriller
It’s now or never in the NRL Finals for the Cronulla Sharks and North Queensland Cowboys on Friday as the pair face off at the Allianz Stadium for the right to play in the Preliminary Finals next week (kick-off 10:50 BST, 19:50 local, Sky Sports+).
The Sharks missed their first chance last week when losing to the Minor Premier Melbourne Storm, while the Cowboys overcame the Newcastle Knights to reach week two. Here are my Storm vs Cowboys predictions along with full match odds.
After finishing fourth in the regular season, the Sharks are deemed by Betfred to have the slight edge over the Cowboys.
Craig Fitzgibbon’s side are the 4/7 favourites to progress to the last four, with the Cowboys 6/4. You can get 20/1 on this one being a draw in 80 minutes, which would be a case of history repeating.
In the Finals two years ago at Shark Park, the two teams were locked at 18-18 at half-time and 30-30 after the 80, with Valentine Holmes eventually breaking the deadlock with a 92nd-minute field goal from two-point range.
Team News
Jesse Ramien’s fitness is the big question mark for Fitzgibbon and the Sharks, with the ankle injury which kept him out last week having healed enough for him to be incuded in the 19.
Sifa Talakai could once more take the centre spot, but there is expected to be a late call on Ramien’s chance of being involved.
It’s no surprise that Todd Payten seems set to stick with the 17 which got the Cowboys past the Knights a week ago. Jaxon Purdue and Thomas Mikaele are the names added to the 19, but Payten is likely to make as few changes as are necessary.
Total Points Over 45.5 @ 4/5
This clash normally involves some points. The last five meetings have seen the winning side clear the 30-point mark, while six of the nine most recent encounters have included more than 45 total points.
Take a look at most of Cronulla’s results this season and you will see a glut of scoring, with their last four matches all hitting the Over for a total of 213 points.
The Cowboys are no different, with last week’s 28-16 win over the Knights just the 10th of their 30 fixtures this season not to hit 46 points, and even then it wasn’t far short.
So I can see these two delivering another points-fest, and bringing in an implied 55.6% probability at 4/5.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Valentine Holmes Anytime Tryscorer @ 5/4
Val Holmes is box office, and not just because of that incredible drop-goal winner in 2022. He’s also always been a man for the big occasion when crossing the whitewash.
This is a guy with 106 tries in 203 Premiership appearances and 20 in 21 matches in a Kangaroos jumper. The only reason his five tries in the 2017 World Cup quarter-final against Samoa are not a competition record anymore is because he went and scored six in the semi against Fiji.
So it is remarkable that he has only two tries to his name in 11 NRL Finals fixtures during his career, and as such I’m going for him to settle that score a little on Friday with a try in this fixture which means so much to him.
He’s a former Sharks player as well as a man remembered well for that last-gasp kick of 2022.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.
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