Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters Prediction: Champs to leave reeling Roosters battered and bruised

Having got their latest title defence off to a glamorous winning start in Las Vegas a fortnight ago, the Penrith Panthers will be looking to back up with another two points when they face the Sydney Roosters at the CommBank Stadium on Friday (09:00 GMT, 20:00 local – live on Sky Sports Action).

Ivan Cleary’s four-time reigning champions held off the Cronulla Sharks 28-22 in Sin City first up, and now take on a Roosters side who were hammered in their opener by a rampant Brisbane Broncos. Here are my Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters predictions, along with the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters Odds

There’s no disguising the fact you’ll need to go looking for value beyond the match-winner market here. The Panthers are 1/16 to win the match, at a prohibitive implied probability of 94.1%, with the Roosters an 8/1 shot and the draw is 25/1.

So it’s in the handicap brackets that you might find something to your taste, with the regular two-way field being set with a 21.5-point start for the Roosters. In that context, the visitors are 20/21 to come out on top, with the Panthers 4/5 to overcome the disadvantage.

In terms of points totals, the champions are 8/11 (57.9%) to score over 34.5, or 6/4 to come in under 31.5. They’re 13/2 (13.3%) to come in between those two figures.

Team News

After missing the game in Vegas, Brian To’o returns to the Panthers line-up for their first match in Australia. His recovery from a hamstring injury results in Paul Alamoti moving from the wing to centre and Luke Garner dropping to the substitutes’ bench.

There’s no change on the opposite wing though, with Casey McLean having overcome the head injury he received against the Sharks. Luron Patea misses out on the 17 as things stand, with Liam Henry not quite making the matchday squad on his continued road back from a shoulder problem.

Rugby League Odds

The Roosters had things go so badly last week that there’s already talk of them trying to sign Jared Waerea-Hargreaves back from Hull Kingston Rovers just one game into their post-JWH era.

They’re also without Victor Radley this week after the England international’s round-one head injury landed him on concussion protocols, so Salesi Foketi will get a first start after debuting against the Broncos.

Trent Robinson includes Hugo Savala as 18th man once more, but the Roosters coach has to do without Spencer Leniu, who will return for the round three clash with the New Zealand Warriors after suspension.

Handicap 2-way Alternative 2: Panthers -28.5 @ 17/10

The Panthers may be all-conquering but they don’t often batter opponents. Only three times last season did they beat any side with a 28.5-point clearance, while the same was true of the weekly rounds in 2023 before they hammered the Melbourne Storm 38-4 in the preliminary final.

This week ought to be different, though. To say the Roosters looked to be in disarray last week would be bordering on the patronising. They were horrible as the Broncs ran in nine tries with barely a glove laid on them at times.

I just don’t see a world in which the Panthers don’t put the Chooks to the cleaners, and with the regular handicap market not giving up much in the way of value I’m happy to tip a wider margin to get the 17/10 with its implied 37% probability.

First Half Handicap: Panthers -10.5 @ 10/11

Even after scoring first last week thanks to England winger Dom Young, the Roosters were in the rear-view mirror by half-time at 20-6. I don’t see this game being too far different.

Ivan Cleary’s side have had a longer run-up having come back from Vegas soon after beating the Sharks a full 12 days prior to kick-off in this clash. And I have them down to come out of the blocks fast as a result.

I make the 10.5-point handicap a skinny one so there’s value to be had here. They had bigger half-time leads than that in seven of their 24 regular-season games last season, and the vast majority of those came against better-built outfits than the Roosters club appears to have right now.

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