Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins Prediction: 13/5 Woolf pack to edge another arm-wrestle

Two sides who were involved in nip-and-tuck opening NRL Premiership fixtures meet on Thursday for what should be another tight tussle at the McDonald Jones Stadium as Newcastle Knights host the Dolphins (09:00 GMT, 20:00 local).

The Knights edged out a dogged Wests Tigers 10-8 last weekend, while the Dolphins were on the wrong end of a two-point ball game when they lost 16-14 to the South Sydney Rabbitohs. So my Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins predictions, seen below with the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds, will be accounting for more of the same.

Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins Odds

The Knights have won three of four encounters since the Dolphins entered the competition, with all coming by a narrow margin. They have got on top of the Redcliffe side by two, four and eight points in the last three clashes, and they are 4/7 to get the victory again on Thursday.

They are a generous-looking 2/1 to win by a margin of 1-12 points, with the implication being a 33.3% chance of that being the outcome. That is at odds with the stats which tell us it has been a winning bet in 75% of their meetings to date.

The 80-minute draw is 20/1, while the Dolphins are a 6/4 shot for victory. It is worth saying at this point that the visitor normally start seasons well, with three wins from three in ’23 and a 75% record in their first four matches 12 months ago. So another defeat would land them in uncharted territory.

Team News

Adam Elliott’s return is the big news for the Knights, with the 167-game veteran coming in for Brodie Jones as one of the bench options.

Other than that, Adam O’Brien rolls out the same team which came from 8-0 down to outlast the Tigers in round one, with former Huddersfield Giants utility back Will Pryce alongside Jones in the reserve list and therefore holding an outside chance of making a sixth NRL first-grade appearance.

Rugby League Odds

The Dolphins have three stellar players available again after they stayed with their families during the Cyclone Alfred scare last week. Kodi Nikorima will be included in the starting side, while Mark Nicholls is among the substitutes and Kenny Bromwich is a reserve.

There will be a different look to the pack for Kristian Woolf, with Connelly Lemuelu missing due to a fractured eye socket and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki excluded under concussion protocols.

Oryn Keeley will be a starter in the back row having been 18th man against the Rabbitohs. That spare option this week will be Sean O’Sullivan, who played in Nikorima’s half-back spot in round one.

Dolphins by 1-12 points @ 13/5

I went for this margin last week and it didn’t come off, but I’m willing to go again. The Dolphins played a potentially higher-pedigree line-up last week than the Knights might turn out to be, and they were also missing the influential Nikorima.

What’s more, had Jamayne Isaako landed more than one of his three shots at goal then it might have been a more positive outcome for the Dolphins. Fox analyst Greg ‘Brandy’ Alexander rightly pointed out his slightly altered ball positioning on the tee, and if he has a tinker with that before round two it could make all the difference.

Either way, I think they have plenty in them with their strike in the outside backs. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is an absolute demon at full-back, and linking into a line boasting Herbie Farnworth, Junior Tupou, Jake Averillo and two-try Isaako, there could be a bit too much in there for the Knights.

I reckon 13/5 at an implied 27.8% probability understates the threat the Dolphins carry in tight games.

Under 40.5 total points @ 6/4

After a pair of low-scoring games involving these two to start the season, a second look at their head-to-head record lends further weight to the suggestion that points may be at a premium again in the Hunter Valley on Thursday.

While these two played out two tryathons totalling 114 points in 2023, last year’s encounters featured just 32 and 20 as the Knights edged out the Dolphins on both occasions.

I can see more of the latter given the way they both defended on the opening weekend, with points being at a premium and fine margins dividing the two teams as a result.

The Dolphins aren’t traditionally involved in a slew of low-scoring fixtures, with just six last year and 13 over their first two NRL campaigns falling into the sub-40.5-point bracket.

But under Woolf they are likely to be that bit more solid and structured than they were for Wayne Bennett, so I envisage another arm-wrestle in this one and fancy the 6/4 on offer.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.