Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs Predictions: Dogs 6/1 to edge another thriller

With the State of Origin series just five days away, the NRL Premiership continues on Friday (kick-off 11:00 BST, live on Watch NRL) with a clash between Newcastle Knights and Canterbury Bulldogs, two teams scrambling for supremacy in the race for finals football.

Adam O’Brien’s Knights sit in seventh going into the shortened round 13, while the Bulldogs are just two points back in 10th. That makes for an intriguing set of Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs predictions…

Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs Odds

Team News

O’Brien doesn’t have any Origin absentees to negotiate but still has compromises to make in his team selection with a host of injury issues.

Bradman Best is the latest casualty, a hamstring problem looking set to keep him out for a month. He joins Tyson Gamble and Kalyn Ponga on the sidelines, with the two foot-injury victims both set for another nine weeks out.

Krystian Mapapalangi comes into the centre for best, while Daniel Saifiti is back from suspension and has been named on the bench ahead of Jack Hetherington.

The Doggies are unable to call on Stephen Crichton and Matt Burton due to their selection for the New South Wales squad for Wednesday’s opening game of the State of Origin series.

Cameron Ciraldo is also missing Viliame Kikau due to a finger injury which will rule him out for a month, while Chris Patolo and Karl Oloapu are still out with knee and neck issues respectively.

Bulldogs to win @ 6/4

Despite a 44-12 battering of the St George Illawarra Dragons last week, coming off a 12-6 half-time deficit, the Bulldogs are second favourites here. And you can understand the oddsmakers’ thinking given some of the names missing for Ciraldo this week.

Crichton is a huge absentee, so too Burton, with both having crossed in the big round 12 win and the latter racking up 20 points including two tries and six kicks at goal.

The Knights, meanwhile, had the bye last week and come into this encounter fresh. While Ponga and Best are big misses, Jack Cogger and Jackson Hastings could steer them around the park in the key moments.

I just have a feeling for Canterbury though, with the second-half demolition of the Dragons showing what they can be capable of. And while they do have notable absentees they still have the likes of Josh Addo-Carr, Jacob Kiraz and Jaeman Salmon, with the latter pair having scored two tries each last time out.

The 6/4 odds on an away win suggest a 40% chance of success, but they edge it as my favourites to come away with two big points.

Bulldogs to win by 1-5 points @ 6/1

Let’s double down, shall we. If I’m right about the narrow margin of the result, then this 6/1 shot has to be worth consideration too.

The Bulldogs always seem like a prime candidate to be involved in tight matches, and indeed four of their 11 fixtures so far in 2024 have been decided by fewer than six points.

Similarly, the Knights’ 28-24 win at Gold Coast Titans in round 11 was their fifth 1-5 point contest this term, meaning this market is a tempting one. Newcastle have won three such games and lost two so far, while Canterbury 1-3 in these close matches.

So if I’m going Bulldogs, and by not many, then 6/1 (implying a 14.3% chance) seems generous.

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